Though polling looks to be ticking upward for Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) in the Virginia Governor’s race, yesterday’s release of the latest Quinnipiac University poll (10/25-29; 916 VA self-identified likely voters) appears as an outlier. The ballot test of 53-36% in favor of Northam touches a margin that no other pollster has reached, and we’ve seen five publicly commissioned surveys since October 15th, and 31 for the entire race. The partisan division appears badly skewed, as Democrats outnumber Republicans in the sample, 37-24%, a much greater margin than voting patterns suggest, and particularly so for the low turnout odd-numbered year election. Mr. Northam may well have the lead heading into the campaign’s final week, but him holding a 17-point spread is highly unlikely.
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