There are already 16 announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates vying for the opportunity to challenge incumbent Scott Walker (R) in November, but there could be at least one more major entry before the June 1st candidate filing deadline. 
 
Four-term Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D), who also served ten years in Congress before entering city government, may again run for Governor.  He has already lost twice to Mr. Walker, after failing to capture the party nomination in 2002.  Looking at the huge field, Mr. Barrett is figuring his statewide name identification and solid base in the city of Milwaukee would be enough to swipe the nomination with a low vote total.  The current leader appears to be two-term Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.   Early special and odd-numbered election returns suggest that Democrats could fare well in the state next year, making Gov. Walker more vulnerable and the Democratic nomination worth having.

--Jim Ellis

Businessman Eric Hovde (R), who lost the 2012 Republican Senate primary to former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson, announced yesterday that he will not enter the 2018 contest.  The decision came as no surprise.  Though Mr. Hovde confirmed he was considering running, no overt move to enter the race was made even when presumed opponent Kevin Nicholson (R) began media advertising and a Super PAC also started spending to promote the latter man’s candidacy.  The primary, now very likely between Mr. Nicholson and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), is scheduled for August 14th. 

--Jim Ellis

Republican US Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson, a former Democrat who changed parties, is coming through a rough stretch in his bid to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).  But, a new poll suggests that smoother sailing is in his political forecast.  Reports from last month cited Mr. Nicholson’s parents as actually becoming contributors to Sen. Baldwin’s campaign because his mother and father don’t agree politically with their son.  The aforementioned survey, however, from WPA Intelligence (4/2-4; 1,028 WI likely Republican primary voters) brushes aside his lack of parental support and finds Mr. Nicholson leading his top GOP primary opponent, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), 45-27%.  The Wisconsin primary isn’t scheduled until August 14th, so this race still has plenty of time to crystallize.

--Jim Ellis

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) is finding that not only is he the premier fundraiser for his Republican colleagues and candidates, but he may be for the Democrats’ also.  Mr. Ryan’s likely general election opponent in his southern Wisconsin congressional district, labor union activist Randy Bryce (D), said yesterday that his campaign raised over $2.1 million to be reported on the March 31st Federal Election Commission disclosure report due on April 15th and controls over $2.3 million in his campaign account.
 
While obvious that the Speaker will have as much as he needs to again prevail in November, it is clear that he will have to run an active campaign for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

At this point, 16 Democrats have announced their candidacy for Governor, meaning a major nomination battle will be settled in the state’s August 14th primary.  Public Policy Polling (1/8-10; 747 WI likely Democratic primary voters) went into the field to determine who are the leading contenders within this large pack of political candidates.  The clear leader is Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, who attracted 29% support, more than twice the amount of the individual placing second, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma), who captured 11% just one point ahead of Madison Mayor Paul Soglin.  None of the other seven tested candidates could break the five percent mark. 
 
In another point of good news for Mr. Evers, when the sampling group was asked who they believed would win the party nomination irrespective of who they were supporting, 35% identified him versus only 10% for Mayor Soglin.  The eventual nominee will face two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R), who briefly entered the 2016 presidential campaign but left the race well before 2015 came to an end.

--Jim Ellis

The Politico publication ran a story yesterday that quoted unnamed aides as saying the Speaker would very likely leave his leadership position after the 2018 election, and speculated that he would also leave the House.  It is important to note that Speaker Ryan, himself, has made no such public claim.  Therefore, it is unclear if the Speaker will seek re-election to the House.  If he does not, Wisconsin’s 1st District could become the site of a highly competitive open seat.  Though President Trump carried the district by ten percentage points, the Republican ticket, with Mr. Ryan as the Vice Presidential nominee, scored only a four-point victory margin.
 
At the end of September, Mr. Ryan’s likely Democratic opponent, labor union activist Randy Bryce, had already raised more than $1 million for the effort.  With a Republican nominee other than Speaker Ryan, the Democrats in the person of Mr. Bryce, could actually begin with a slight advantage.

--Jim Ellis

Labor leader Mahlon Mitchell (D), who was the party’s Lt. Governor nominee when Democrats attempted to re-call Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch in 2012, announced that he will join the enlarging Democratic gubernatorial field, one of whom will challenge Gov. Walker next year.   Adding Mr. Mitchell means that 14 candidates are running in the Democratic primary, a race that won’t be settled until next August.  Among the more prominent contenders are state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Buffalo County), state Rep. Dana Wachs (D-Eau Claire), and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin.

--Jim Ellis

Retired Army Colonel Steve Toft (R) announced yesterday that he will challenge 11-term veteran Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind (D-La Crosse) next year.  Republicans are more optimistic about the state’s western region since President Trump carried this district in November (49-45%), and Gov. Scott Walker is expected to run strong at top of ticket here.  Though only 54 years of age, Rep. Kind is entering his 22nd year in the House.  Armed with more than $2.8 million in his campaign account, the Congressman will not be easy to unseat no matter how the state’s outside political dynamics unfold.

--Jim Ellis

It has been presumed for months that two-term Governor and former Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker would run for a third term, and now he has made the speculation official.  Yesterday, Mr. Walker declared his candidacy for re-election and appears in a credible position to win again. 
 
Wisconsin voters have a history of awarding long tenures to its Governors.   Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson was elected four consecutive times beginning in 1986, for example. 
 
Thirteen Democrats are in the race, but likely the most prominent are Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin.  Gov. Walker can expect a competitive general election regardless of whom he eventually faces.  The Wisconsin primary won’t be until August, so it will be months until we see how the Democratic primary actually unfolds.

--Jim Ellis