According to a new Tarrance Group poll, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) has taken the lead in the Wisconsin US Senate Republican primary. Sen. Vukmir enjoys backing from the conservative flank of the Wisconsin GOP, and, according to the survey released yesterday (800 WI likely Republican primary voters), she has pulled ahead of businessman and former Democrat Kevin Nicholson, 36-29%.

Earlier, an American Viewpoint survey (5/29-31; 500 WI likely Republican primary voters) found Mr. Nicholson with a 32-30% edge. In early April, WPA Intelligence (4/2-4; 1,028 WI likely Republican primary voters) found Mr. Nicholson boasting a large lead, 45-27%.

​State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) released a new American Viewpoint survey conducted for her campaign that contradicts the previous public data.  According to the AV poll (5/29-31; 500 WI likely Republican primary voters), businessman Kevin Nicholson clings to only a 32-30% edge over Ms. Vukmir.  The most recent other survey (but from weeks ago), coming from Nicholson pollster WPA Intelligence (4/2-4; 1,028 WI likely Republican primary voters), found the businessman up 45-27%.  The American Viewpoint poll also projected Ms. Vukmir leading among those who said they were most enthusiastic about the election, and from those respondents in the highest voting propensity category.  Ms. Vukmir also won the official Wisconsin Republican Party endorsement at the state convention.  

--Jim Ellis

Milwaukee Mayor and former Congressman Tom Barrett (D), who has already run three times for Governor, a couple of weeks ago said he was contemplating entering the very large field of Democratic candidates who are vying for the right to challenge Gov. Scott Walker (R).  Yesterday, Mayor Barrett announced his decision not to run statewide this year. 
 
In the Democratic primary are 17 individuals who have announced their candidacies for the August 14th primary.  The early leader appears to be state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, who has built small leads in several released statewide surveys.  The general election, featuring Gov. Walker running for a third term, promises to yield another close finish.

--Jim Ellis

This past weekend, Republican convention delegates from across the Badger State gathered to make official party endorsements.  In the US Senate primary, the delegates voted 73-27% to endorse state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) over businessman Kevin Nicholson and several other minor candidates.  The endorsement does not preclude an August 14th primary, but does provide the favored contender with extra campaign resources and the official party candidate designation.  The eventual nominee faces first-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in what will be a competitive general election, but one in which the GOP candidate begins as a decided underdog.

--Jim Ellis

There are already 16 announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates vying for the opportunity to challenge incumbent Scott Walker (R) in November, but there could be at least one more major entry before the June 1st candidate filing deadline. 
 
Four-term Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D), who also served ten years in Congress before entering city government, may again run for Governor.  He has already lost twice to Mr. Walker, after failing to capture the party nomination in 2002.  Looking at the huge field, Mr. Barrett is figuring his statewide name identification and solid base in the city of Milwaukee would be enough to swipe the nomination with a low vote total.  The current leader appears to be two-term Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.   Early special and odd-numbered election returns suggest that Democrats could fare well in the state next year, making Gov. Walker more vulnerable and the Democratic nomination worth having.

--Jim Ellis

Businessman Eric Hovde (R), who lost the 2012 Republican Senate primary to former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson, announced yesterday that he will not enter the 2018 contest.  The decision came as no surprise.  Though Mr. Hovde confirmed he was considering running, no overt move to enter the race was made even when presumed opponent Kevin Nicholson (R) began media advertising and a Super PAC also started spending to promote the latter man’s candidacy.  The primary, now very likely between Mr. Nicholson and state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), is scheduled for August 14th. 

--Jim Ellis

Republican US Senate candidate Kevin Nicholson, a former Democrat who changed parties, is coming through a rough stretch in his bid to face Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).  But, a new poll suggests that smoother sailing is in his political forecast.  Reports from last month cited Mr. Nicholson’s parents as actually becoming contributors to Sen. Baldwin’s campaign because his mother and father don’t agree politically with their son.  The aforementioned survey, however, from WPA Intelligence (4/2-4; 1,028 WI likely Republican primary voters) brushes aside his lack of parental support and finds Mr. Nicholson leading his top GOP primary opponent, state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield), 45-27%.  The Wisconsin primary isn’t scheduled until August 14th, so this race still has plenty of time to crystallize.

--Jim Ellis

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) is finding that not only is he the premier fundraiser for his Republican colleagues and candidates, but he may be for the Democrats’ also.  Mr. Ryan’s likely general election opponent in his southern Wisconsin congressional district, labor union activist Randy Bryce (D), said yesterday that his campaign raised over $2.1 million to be reported on the March 31st Federal Election Commission disclosure report due on April 15th and controls over $2.3 million in his campaign account.
 
While obvious that the Speaker will have as much as he needs to again prevail in November, it is clear that he will have to run an active campaign for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

At this point, 16 Democrats have announced their candidacy for Governor, meaning a major nomination battle will be settled in the state’s August 14th primary.  Public Policy Polling (1/8-10; 747 WI likely Democratic primary voters) went into the field to determine who are the leading contenders within this large pack of political candidates.  The clear leader is Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, who attracted 29% support, more than twice the amount of the individual placing second, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma), who captured 11% just one point ahead of Madison Mayor Paul Soglin.  None of the other seven tested candidates could break the five percent mark. 
 
In another point of good news for Mr. Evers, when the sampling group was asked who they believed would win the party nomination irrespective of who they were supporting, 35% identified him versus only 10% for Mayor Soglin.  The eventual nominee will face two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R), who briefly entered the 2016 presidential campaign but left the race well before 2015 came to an end.

--Jim Ellis