Countering Rep. Evan Jenkins’ (R-Huntington) polling release that showed him leading the Republican primary race for the right to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D), Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) just went public with his own internal poll that shows very different results.   According to his Osage Research survey (3/13; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters), it is Mr. Morrisey who has climbed into first place, leading former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship and Rep. Jenkins, 24-23-17%.  At the beginning of last week, Mr. Jenkins released his Harper Polling survey that found him leading with 29% support versus 27 for Mr. Blankenship, and 19% for Attorney General Morrisey.
 
Mr. Blankenship, recently released from prison after being convicted of mine safety violations that helped lead to the deaths of 29 individuals in a mine disaster back in 2010, has been advertising heavily in the state.  The early campaign spending largely accounts for his strong standing in both polls despite his negative personal situation.  The Republican primary is May 8th and expects to become a testy affair.

--Jim Ellis

In a Harper Polling survey released on Friday (2/5-6; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters via automated device for the Jenkins campaign), Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) leads Attorney General Patrick Morrisey 33-25%, with convicted Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship still having 18% preference.   
 
So far, Mr. Morrisey has a slight combined edge in fundraising.   The two-term Attorney General has raised $1.4 million, while an unconnected Super PAC supporting his candidacy banked an additional $470,000.   The campaign’s cash-on-hand total is $1.1 million.  Rep. Jenkins raised $1.1 million and has $1.4 million in the bank counting a transfer from his House campaign account.  The primary race will be decided May 8th, and promises to be a highly competitive campaign.   The winner will then challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Don Blankenship is the former CEO of Massey Energy who was personally cited for safety violations in the deaths of 29 employees in the 2010 Upper Big Branch mine explosion.  Mr. Blankenship was sentenced to a year in prison, but that notwithstanding, he has filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to join the US Senate Republican primary.  There, he will face Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and US Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington).  It is likely he is running for office to have his chance of telling his side of the tragedy and hopefully, from his perspective, improve his moribund public image.

--Jim Ellis

The two Republican candidates hoping to square off with Sen. Joe Manchin (D) next year just released their third quarter financials.  Attorney General Patrick Morrisey posted raising $672,000 for the period between the end of June through September 30th, as compared to just $221,000 for Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) during the same interval.  The deficit is largely explained because Mr. Jenkins didn’t have to raise a great deal of early money.  He transferred over $1.2 million from his House account thus giving him a substantial cash-on-hand advantage.

--Jim Ellis

Calling Sen. Joe Manchin (D) President Trump’s top liaison to the Democrats, new Republican Gov. Jim Justice made it clear that he is supporting West Virginia’s incumbent Senator irrespective of party registration.  Mr. Justice was elected Governor in November on the Democratic ticket, but switched to the GOP at a recent rally featuring President Trump.  Messrs. Justice and Manchin have been close for years, so the fact that the Governor would continue backing the second-term Senator hardly comes as a surprise.  Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) are competing for the Republican Senatorial nomination.

--Jim Ellis

Democrat Ralph Baxter, former head of the Orrick national law firm, announced that he will challenge four-term Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) next year.   The 1st District is the northern West Virginia seat and has moved hard to the right ever since Mr. McKinley converted the seat to the Republicans in 2010 with a one-point victory.  Since then, the Congressman has averaged 65.1% over three re-election campaigns.  Though Mr. Baxter is likely to have the wherewithal to fund a serious political effort, Rep. McKinley will begin this race as a heavy favorite.

--Jim Ellis

A Repass and Research America Inc. poll for West Virginia Metro News (8/11-20; 400 WV likely voters drawn from each of the state’s 55 counties) finds Sen. Joe Manchin (D) faring well against both of his Republican competitors.  Opposite Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington), the Senator posts a 50-40% advantage.  If Attorney General Patrick Morrisey were the Republican nominee, Sen. Manchin would fare slightly better.  The ballot test from this configuration is 52-38%.  We can expect a hard fought Republican primary that will be decided on May 10, 2018.  The general election will immediately follow and is rated as Lean Democratic, but could easily turn into a toss-up situation.

--Jim Ellis

At a presidential rally featuring Mr. Trump, West Virginia Democratic Gov. Jim Justice announced that he is switching to the Republican Party.  Mr. Justice, the state’s richest individual who made a fortune in the coal and hotel industries, ran as a conservative in the 2016 open election and defeated state Senate President Bill Cole (R), 49-42%.  Gov. Justice becoming a Republican drops the Democrats to holding a record low 15 state chief executive positions, while the GOP now increases to 34.  Alaska’s Bill Walker is the nation’s lone Independent Governor. 

--Jim Ellis

Sen. Joe Manchin (D) confirmed yesterday that he will seek re-election next year.  Most indications were that he would run for another term, but unconfirmed speculation did abound that he also might retire.  Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) oppose each other in what will become a heated primary battle for the Republican nomination.

--Jim Ellis

Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) had long been expected to enter the 2018 Senate campaign, and yesterday officially announced his candidacy.  Mr. Morrisey, however, must first top Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) in the Republican primary before getting a chance to face Sen. Joe Manchin (D) next November. 
 
Mr. Morrisey was first elected to his statewide position in 2012, becoming the only Republican to win the office since the 1932 election.  He was re-elected in November with a 52-42% victory margin against Democratic state Delegate Doug Reynolds.  Morrisey makes the argument that though Rep. Jenkins criticizes Sen. Manchin for supporting President Obama, the Congressman himself did so, too, prior to him leaving the Democratic Party.  Mr. Jenkins served 16 years in the state legislature as a Democrat before switching parties in 2013, prior to entering the 2014 Republican congressional primary. 

--Jim Ellis