A new Quinnipiac University poll (4/12-17; 1,029 TX registered voters) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) only 47-44% in a prelude to the general election.  But, many inconsistencies are present in the poll, particularly when observing that Sen. Cruz is viewed as handling every issue better than O’Rourke.  The sampling discrepancy appears in the Independent category, which breaks hard for O’Rourke and is grouped at a higher rate than both Republicans and Democrats.  Thus, the results suggest the data may be skewed.
 
While clear that Rep. O’Rourke will have the resources to compete with Sen. Cruz, it is still highly doubtful that he can overcome Cruz’s inherent Republican advantages once the campaign fully plays out for November.   Both Sen. Cruz and Rep. O’Rourke won their respective party nominations outright in the March 6th Texas primary election.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Quinnipiac University poll (see Texas Senate above) also tested Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) re-election standing and produced even more questionable results.  According to the data, the Governor would lead Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 49-40%, and businessman Andrew White (D), 48-41%.  The latter two are facing each other in a May 22nd Democratic run-off for the party nomination.
 
Again, because of over-sampling Independents who seem to skew Democratic in unusually high percentages in this particular poll, Gov. Abbott’s standing is clearly under-stated.  All other data shows him with very comfortable re-election leads and a mammoth advantage in campaign resources.
 
--Jim Ellis

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken sides in two Texas run-off elections.  According to their new “Red to Blue” target campaign listing released yesterday, the Committee is recommending support of former Office of the US Trade Representative official Gina Ortiz Jones, in a May 22nd run-off election for the right to face Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) in November, and attorney and ex-NFL football player Colin Allred who wants to oppose veteran US Representative and Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions (R-Dallas).  Mr. Allred’s Democratic run-off opponent is businesswoman and former Deputy Agriculture Department Undersecretary Lillian Salerno.

--Jim Ellis

Over the weekend, the four Republican candidates who failed to qualify for the open GOP run-off election to replace retiring Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) – the group cumulatively garnered 30% of the vote in the March 6th primary - unanimously endorsed former Victoria County Republican Party chairman Michael Cloud in his May 22nd Republican run-off battle with former state Water Development Board chairman Bech Bruun.  In the primary, Mr. Bruun placed first with 36.1% of the vote followed closely by Mr. Cloud’s 33.9 percent.  Because of the close primary result, the secondary run-off election is rated as a toss-up, so the united opponent endorsement development carries some significance.

--Jim Ellis

Texas Republicans and Democrats went to the polls yesterday to conclude the first-in-the-nation midterm primary, and the incumbents in both parties had good nights.  All 28 House members from both parties seeking re-election easily won re-nomination, with the lowest recorded incumbent winning percentage being Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson’s (D-Dallas) 63.6%.  The Congresswoman previously announced that the upcoming term will be her last. 
 
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R) both won re-nomination with victory percentages of 90 and 85, respectively.  Sen. Cruz will face Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) in the general election as the latter man also scored an outright victory in his Democratic primary.  The Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez and businessman Andrew White, will advance to a May 22nd run-off election.
 
In the eight open House seats, all but three of the campaigns are advancing to a run-off election.  State Sen. Van Taylor (R-Plano) easily won outright the GOP nomination in the seat from which veteran Rep. Sam Johnson (R-Plano) is retiring. 
 
Turning to El Paso, County Judge (Executive) Veronica Escobar (D) also won outright the Democratic nomination to replace Rep. O’Rourke.  She will have little trouble holding the seat for her party in the fall.  Going southeast to Houston, state Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D) won the Democratic primary in the 29th CD, and she will come to Washington next year to replace retiring Rep. Gene Green (D-Houston). 
 
Open seat run-offs will occur in Districts 2 (Houston; Rep. Ted Poe-R), 5 (Dallas; Rep. Jeb Hensarling-R), 6 (Arlington; Rep. Joe Barton-R), 21 (San Antonio; Rep. Lamar Smith-R), and 27 (Corpus Christi; Rep. Blake Farenthold-R).  Same for Democratic challengers opposing Rep. John Culberson (R-Houston), Will Hurd (R-San Antonio), and Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions (R-Dallas).
 
On a side note, Land Commissioner George P. Bush (R), won re-nomination last with 58% of the vote, defeating former two-term Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson (R).

--Jim Ellis

The Texas Tribune sponsored a primary election poll in anticipation of the state’s first-in-the-nation midterm primary scheduled for March 6th.   According to the survey (YouGov; 2/1-12; 1,200 TX adults; 633 modeled Republican primary voters; 517 modeled Democratic primary voters; an over-sample of 424 confirmed primary voters were added to the respective party samples; weighted sampling universe), Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez has opened a 43-24% lead over businessman Andrew White, son of former Gov. Mark White, in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.  The winner faces an uphill battle against first-term incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R).
 
The pollsters also asked about the US Senate race, among other statewide campaigns.  There, it appears that both Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) can expect little primary competition in early March.  Both are easily expected to win their respective nominations without run-offs, and then face each other in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Businesswoman and conservative activist Kathaleen Wall continues to make strides in her quest to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Poe (R-Atascocita/Humble) in the Houston suburbs.  Yesterday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) announced his endorsement of Ms. Wall’s campaign, following Gov. Greg Abbott (R) doing so in late January.  
 
It appears Ms. Wall, a first-time candidate who has put $2.7 million into her own campaign treasury, is beginning to pull away from the GOP field.  So far, her two closest competitors among the nine total candidates (state Rep. Kevin Roberts (R-Houston) and businessman Rick Walker) don’t even have 20% of her total funds.  The first-in-the-nation Texas primary is March 6th.  If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a May 22nd run-off election.  The eventual Republican nominee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

On Friday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Republicans’ appeal of the Texas’ three-judge panel’s ruling declaring Districts 27 (Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi) and 35 (Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin) unconstitutional for racial gerrymandering reasons.  The high court stayed the lower court ruling, and also is considering the Republicans’ motion to stay on the recent North Carolina federal court ruling that the state’s congressional map is a political gerrymander.  Whether the court will stay the North Carolina decision could possibly be decided later this week. 
 
The Supreme Court has already heard the Democrats’ claim that the Wisconsin congressional lines are a political gerrymander, and a decision on that case could soon be forthcoming.  The Republicans’ political gerrymandering claim against the Maryland map, specifically the state’s 6th District (Rep. John Delaney, D-Potomac), will also be on the high court’s agenda.  It is unclear if any of the eventual rulings will cause the affected states to re-draw their congressional and/or state legislative maps before the 2018 election.

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, we reported on a story that the Texas Republican Party was asking a court to intervene about whether Rep. Blake Farenthold’s (R-Corpus Christi) name should appear on the ballot since he has withdrawn from further 2018 political competition.  The Texas Secretary of State indicated he is placing the name on the ballot because Farenthold filed for re-election.  The court agreed with the Republican argument that the entire filing process had not been completed; hence, Mr. Farenthold’s name will not be present on the 2018 ballot.  Democrats immediately initiated a lawsuit against the judge’s ruling, but later in the day backed away from taking any further legal action.
 
--Jim Ellis