A day after Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez won the Lone Star State Democratic gubernatorial nomination, JMC Analytics & Polling released a general election survey taken just days before the primary (5/19-21; 575 TX likely voters).  The results find Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading Ms. Valdez by a 48-36% clip.  The totals are likely understating Gov. Abbott’s strength because of the pre-primary publicity the Democrats were generating.  Additionally, the campaign war chest figures are grossly out of balance.   Going into the Democratic run-off election, Ms. Valdez reported having only $115,000 in her campaign account versus almost $41 million in the Governor’s campaign treasury.

--Jim Ellis

A breaking JMC Analytics & Polling survey of the Texas Senate race (5/19-21; 575 TX likely voters) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), 47-40%, as the two continue their general election campaign.  The results, while still close, are a slight improvement for Sen. Cruz from the April Quinnipiac University poll that found him leading Mr. O’Rourke only 47-44%.  Both Sen. Cruz and Rep. O’Rourke won their respective Republican and Democratic primaries back on March 6th.

--Jim Ellis

Voters will finalize the Texas nomination process today, as the congressional candidates advancing to the general election in a dozen significant run-off situations will be determined.  The simultaneous Democratic and Republican run-offs are occurring in the open 6th District (Rep. Joe Barton; R-Ennis), the 21st District (Rep. Lamar Smith; R-San Antonio) and open 27th (Resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold; R-Corpus Christi).  Republicans are voting in open TX-2 (Rep. Ted Poe; R-Atascocita) and open TX-5 (Rep. Jeb Hensarling; R-Dallas).   Democrats will select a nominee against Reps. John Culberson (R-Houston), Will Hurd (R-San Antonio), John Carter (R-Round Rock), and Pete Sessions (R-Dallas).   

​--Jim Ellis

As the candidates head toward the Texas run-off elections scheduled for May 22nd, WPA Intelligence released their survey (4/26-28; 400 TX-6 likely run-off voters) of the open 6th District Republican run-off between Tarrant County Assessor Ron Wright and airline pilot and Iraq War veteran Jake Ellzey.  According to the results, Mr. Wright is staked to a 47-24% lead as the run-off campaign turns toward its final two weeks.  
 
In the March 6th primary, Mr. Wright placed first with 45% as compared to Mr. Ellzey’s 22 percent.  Because Wright did not garner majority support the secondary election is required.  The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite against the Democratic run-off winner.  Also, on May 22nd, the contest between journalist Jana Lynne Sanchez (D) and pastor Ruby Faye Woolridge (D) will be decided.  In the primary, Ms. Woolridge topped Ms. Sanchez by just 15 votes, but neither were anywhere close to obtaining majority support.

--Jim Ellis

In an unusual move, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) scheduled the special election to replace resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) for a period just over a month after the May 22nd run-off election.  Arguing that the area needs representation in the final stages of the current congressional session because of issues involving the Hurricane Harvey clean up funding, Gov. Abbott received legal support from Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) to invoke an emergency election timetable to fill the vacancy.  This means the normal deadlines governing the candidate filing period and election structure are superseded.
 
In this new contest, now scheduled for June 30th with the candidate filing deadline already upon us by close of business Friday, contenders will appear on one ballot with the top two candidates advancing to a run-off election to be scheduled at a later date.  The Governor’s staff confirms that the secondary vote wlll occur sometime in early September.  Both Republicans competing in the run-off election and Roy Barrera, one of two Democrats qualifying for that party’s run-off, say they will file for the special election.

--Jim Ellis

A new Quinnipiac University poll (4/12-17; 1,029 TX registered voters) finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) only 47-44% in a prelude to the general election.  But, many inconsistencies are present in the poll, particularly when observing that Sen. Cruz is viewed as handling every issue better than O’Rourke.  The sampling discrepancy appears in the Independent category, which breaks hard for O’Rourke and is grouped at a higher rate than both Republicans and Democrats.  Thus, the results suggest the data may be skewed.
 
While clear that Rep. O’Rourke will have the resources to compete with Sen. Cruz, it is still highly doubtful that he can overcome Cruz’s inherent Republican advantages once the campaign fully plays out for November.   Both Sen. Cruz and Rep. O’Rourke won their respective party nominations outright in the March 6th Texas primary election.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Quinnipiac University poll (see Texas Senate above) also tested Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) re-election standing and produced even more questionable results.  According to the data, the Governor would lead Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez (D), 49-40%, and businessman Andrew White (D), 48-41%.  The latter two are facing each other in a May 22nd Democratic run-off for the party nomination.
 
Again, because of over-sampling Independents who seem to skew Democratic in unusually high percentages in this particular poll, Gov. Abbott’s standing is clearly under-stated.  All other data shows him with very comfortable re-election leads and a mammoth advantage in campaign resources.
 
--Jim Ellis

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken sides in two Texas run-off elections.  According to their new “Red to Blue” target campaign listing released yesterday, the Committee is recommending support of former Office of the US Trade Representative official Gina Ortiz Jones, in a May 22nd run-off election for the right to face Rep. Will Hurd (R-San Antonio) in November, and attorney and ex-NFL football player Colin Allred who wants to oppose veteran US Representative and Rules Committee chairman Pete Sessions (R-Dallas).  Mr. Allred’s Democratic run-off opponent is businesswoman and former Deputy Agriculture Department Undersecretary Lillian Salerno.

--Jim Ellis

Over the weekend, the four Republican candidates who failed to qualify for the open GOP run-off election to replace retiring Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) – the group cumulatively garnered 30% of the vote in the March 6th primary - unanimously endorsed former Victoria County Republican Party chairman Michael Cloud in his May 22nd Republican run-off battle with former state Water Development Board chairman Bech Bruun.  In the primary, Mr. Bruun placed first with 36.1% of the vote followed closely by Mr. Cloud’s 33.9 percent.  Because of the close primary result, the secondary run-off election is rated as a toss-up, so the united opponent endorsement development carries some significance.

--Jim Ellis