Late last month, former Rhode Island Senator and Governor Lincoln Chafee (R/I/D) indicated he was considering challenging Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in this year’s Democratic primary.  After polls were published showing the Senator crushing Mr. Chafee, he began saying less publicly.  Now, according to his announcement yesterday, the former statewide office holder says he will not run for any office this year.  After the polling went public, it became obvious that Mr. Chafee would end his fledgling quest for a 2018 political comeback before it even officially began.

--Jim Ellis

A couple of weeks ago, former Governor and US Senator Lincoln Chafee (R/I/D) floated the idea that he might challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in this year’s Democratic primary.  Yesterday, Sen. Whitehouse’s campaign released the results of their Anzalone Liszt Grove Research internal poll (5/7-14; 801 RI likely general election voters with an over-sample of 101 likely Democratic primary voters making the total primary sample size 329).  According to the data, Sen. Whitehouse would defeat Mr. Chafee in a landslide, 72-14%.  Within the polling sample, Sen. Whitehouse’s favorability index is 79:10% positive to negative as opposed to Mr. Chafee’s, 32:46%.  Mr. Chafee has yet to announce definitively that he will run.

--Jim Ellis

Former Governor and US Senator Lincoln Chafee, who served in Washington as a Republican, was elected Governor as an Independent, and then switched to the Democrats, says he is “90% sure” he will return to active campaigning this year.  Mr. Chafee said yesterday he plans to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in the Democratic primary and will run as the Bernie Sanders candidate. 
 
Sen. Whitehouse unseated then-Sen. Chafee in the 2006 general election.  After losing, he returned to run for Governor in 2010, but as an Independent, and was able to win a three-way general election with just 36% of the vote.  Faced with poor approval ratings and staring at defeat both in the 2014 Democratic primary and in the general election as an Independent, Gov. Chafee chose not to seek a second term in office.

--Jim Ellis

In addition to former Senator Lincoln Chafee potentially challenging Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in the Democratic primary, Gov. Gina Raimondo, suffering from poor approval ratings, is also drawing a Democratic primary challenge it was learned yesterday.
 
Former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who was indicating he would enter the Governor’s race as an Independent, changed course and announced yesterday that he will challenge the first term Governor in the Democratic primary.  Therefore, with challenges to both Whitehouse and Raimondo on the political horizon, the September 12th Democratic primary is unfolding as a major electoral contest.

--Jim Ellis

Polling is suggesting that first-term Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) is facing a more difficult re-election campaign than a Rhode Island Democratic incumbent should expect.  Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R), who lost to Raimondo, 41-36% in 2014, looks to be drawing even closer in the early going of what is likely to be a re-match campaign.  Yesterday, Gov. Raimondo’s re-election path may have gotten even a bit rockier. 
 
Former Democratic Secretary of State Matt Brown has filed papers to run for Governor, and may do so as an Independent.  Considering Mr. Brown still may have some semblance of a political base within the Democratic Party, running as an Independent would draw some votes away from Raimondo and could help put her in serious political jeopardy, ironically in one of the country’s strongest Democratic states.   This is a developing story.

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, former state Rep. Joe Trillo, the 2016 Rhode Island state chairman for President Trump, announced that he will enter next year’s Governor’s race as an Independent.  Immediately, Republican Party officials called on Trillo, a former Republican National Committee member, to change his mind arguing that such a three-way race would allow Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) to be re-elected without attracting a majority vote since the conservative/Republican constituency would be split.  Gov. Raimondo’s job approval ratings are upside down and former gubernatorial nominee and Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R) was thought to have a legitimate chance of carrying the heavily Democratic state.  Expect further Republican efforts to convince Trillo to drop his newly announced campaign.

--Jim Ellis

According to Cranston Mayor and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), a new internal political poll projects him to a big Republican primary lead, and even a small general election edge over incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) in the heavily Democratic state.  In 2014, Ms. Raimondo defeated Mr. Fung, 41-36%, with three independent candidates dividing the remainder. 
 
According to the TargetPoint Consulting survey (11/4-6; 600 RI active voters; 433 registered Republican households) Mr. Fung leads state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan and former state Representative and Trump honorary Rhode Island campaign co-chairman Joe Trillo by a respective 45-24-10% split.  In the proposed general election, Fung claims a 46-41% edge over the Governor, who records an upside down favorability ratio of 43:49%.   While Rhode Island is one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic states, the party has only elected two of the last six Governors.
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--Jim Ellis

According to Cranston Mayor and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), a new internal political poll projects him to a big Republican primary lead, and even a small general election edge over incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) in the heavily Democratic state.  In 2014, Ms. Raimondo defeated Mr. Fung, 41-36%, with three independent candidates dividing the remainder. 
 
According to the TargetPoint Consulting survey (11/4-6; 600 RI active voters; 433 registered Republican households) Mr. Fung leads state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan and former state Representative and Trump honorary Rhode Island campaign co-chairman Joe Trillo by a respective 45-24-10% split.  In the proposed general election, Fung claims a 46-41% edge over the Governor, who records an upside down favorability ratio of 43:49%.   While Rhode Island is one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic states, the party has only elected two of the last six Governors.

--Jim Ellis

It appears the GOP will field at least two strong gubernatorial candidates, each vying to challenge first-term incumbent Gina Raimondo (D) next November.  Cranston Mayor Allen Fung, who lost to Raimondo 41-36% with three Independents splitting the remaining votes, is telling supporters he will run again and soon make a formal announcement.   State House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan announced her candidacy this week meaning a significant primary will commence.  Joe Trillo, President Trump’s former Rhode Island campaign chairman, is also in the race but his viability as a candidate is unclear at this point in time.   Gov. Raimondo has poor favorability ratings and, with only a 41% victory percentage four years ago, this could become a competitive campaign.

--Jim Ellis

Former Governor and US Senator Lincoln Chafee (D), who has held office as a Republican, Independent, and a Democrat and who didn’t seek re-election as Governor after one term because his polling standing was so low, said yesterday he has not ruled out challenging Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo next year.  The incumbent’s approval ratings are also low and an intense primary challenge is expected, whether it comes from Mr. Chafee or another major potential candidate such as Attorney General Peter Kilmartin and/or former gubernatorial candidate Clay Pell, the grandson of former US Senator Claiborne Pell (D).

--Jim Ellis