It is clear local Montgomery County Democratic politics is moving well beyond former US Rep. Joe Hoeffel.  The ex-Congressman served in the House for three terms, from 1999-2005.  He was the Democratic US Senate nominee in 2004, losing to then-incumbent Arlen Specter (R), 53-42%.  Now, he is attempting a political comeback in the new open 4th CD, but finds rough going.  Raising only $20,000 in the last reporting period, Mr. Hoeffel is lagging well behind state Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Jenkintown). 
 
Already endorsing Ms. Dean is former Governor and Democratic National Committee chairman Ed Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, ex-Montgomery County US Rep. Allyson Schwartz, four top unions, and 12 current local Montgomery County elected officials.  Ironically, Ms. Dean’s first political experience came as a teenager when she volunteered for a state Representative’s re-election effort…a state legislator named Joe Hoeffel.

--Jim Ellis

Lehigh Valley Congressman Charlie Dent (R-Allentown), who had long ago announced that he would not seek re-election, yesterday made public his plans to resign from the House sometime in May. 
 
His decision to leave Congress early begins an interesting political situation.  Under Pennsylvania election law, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) will have ten days from the official vacancy date to set the special replacement election.  He must schedule the vote for no less than 60 days from the vacancy date but, after that requirement is met, he has great leeway over when to add the replacement contest to the election calendar.
 
Since the 15th District and the new 7th CD, which houses the majority (72%) of the former Dent district territory, are significantly different, the candidates will be in a situation of running in one place to fill the balance of the term and another to win a full term in the next Congress.  Gov. Wolf likely solves the problem by simply scheduling the replacement special concurrently with the regular, November 6th general election.

--Jim Ellis

Monmouth University released their latest Pennsylvania statewide poll (4/4-12; 414 PA registered and likely voters) and finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) holding a substantial 48-32% lead over Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton).  The margin is such that there is no doubting that Sen. Casey enjoys a sizable advantage in this fledgling campaign, but this poll has serious flaws.  First, the sample size of 414 voters for a state the size of Pennsylvania is small, and the eight-day sampling period is long.  Keeping in mind that Monmouth missed the Pennsylvania presidential campaign result about a week before the election because President Trump’s vote was understated by a minimum of four percentage points, it would be fair to speculate that the current margin is likely a bit tighter than Monmouth projects. 
 
--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Monmouth University poll (see Pennsylvania Senate above) also tested the state’s Governor’s race.  Paired opposite state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York), Gov. Tom Wolf (D) opens up a large 47-31% lead.  As with Sen. Casey, there is no doubt that the Governor has a clear edge at this point in the race, but taking into account the methodological flaws and Monmouth’s track record in the state, it is probably that the margin between the two candidates is less than stated.
 
In any event, both Gov. Wolf and Sen. Casey enjoy leads well beyond the polling margin of error.  While it’s debatable whether the advantage is insurmountable, it is clear that the Republican candidates have a lot of ground to converse before even approaching victory range.

--Jim Ellis

So far, many early primary states have featured a large number of candidates failing to meet the ballot qualification requirements.  Yesterday, another candidate, this one from Pennsylvania, was denied ballot access.  Enough of businessman Paul Mango’s (R) petition signatures were rejected to take him below the 1,000 required valid-signature mark.  Mr. Mango says he will not challenge the official ruling, but is looking at potentially filing charges against the signature gathering company that he believes may have acted in a fraudulent manner.
 
The new 5th District is a solid Democratic seat, and all the action is in the party primary.  With Republicans having little chance to win the seat in November, the Mango disqualification won’t change any Pennsylvania election outlook.

--Jim Ellis

A new McLaughlin & Associates survey (4/2-3; 500 PA likely Republican primary voters) finds state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York) opening up a large 50-24% lead over businessman Paul Mango for the May 15th Republican primary, despite the fact that the latter man has been running stinging negative ads against the York area state legislator.  The eventual Republican nominee faces incumbent Tom Wolf (D), whose favorability index has risen considerably in the past several weeks. 

--Jim Ellis

The new open 4th District will likely go Democratic in the fall, and the party primary battle lines became a bit clearer yesterday.  Despite candidate filing closing on March 6th, State Rep. Mary Jo Daley (D-Narberth) ended her congressional campaign and endorsed her state legislative colleague, state Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Abingdon Township).  Former Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter (D) are also publicly supporting Ms. Dean. 
 
The main contender appears to be former US Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D-Montgomery County), who jumped into the race in the latter stages of the filing period and early polling reveals leads the multi-candidate field.  Now in a three-way race, with gun control activist Shira Goodman being the additional candidate, the contest is clearly coming down to Dean and Hoeffel.  Ms. Daley’s departure makes this primary more interesting and creates doubt about the eventual outcome.

--Jim Ellis

With Rep. Ryan Costello (R-West Chester) deciding not to seek re-election after he had filed his signature petitions the state and local Republican Party leaders were left with few options to try to save the seat.  Because another individual, attorney Greg McCauley, had filed a primary challenge to Costello, the Republicans do at least have a candidate with whom to work.  After flirting with the idea of attempting to recruit and support a write-in candidate, the party leaders have decided to give Mr. McCauley a chance and are lining up to back him.  Non-profit executive and Air Force veteran Chrissy Houlahan is the only Democrat that filed, meaning she is quickly becoming the favorite to convert the seat in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

A just-released Franklin & Marshall College poll (3/19-26; 423 PA registered voters) gives us some new information about the Keystone State’s political affairs, but the methodology is suspect.  The sample size is small for a statewide poll in a large domain, the sampling period long, the error factor high (6.8%), and the results yield a slight Democratic skew.  Though the flaws are obviously significant, the ballot test result finds Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton), 43-25%.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Franklin & Marshall College poll finds Gov. Tom Wolf (D) comfortably leading the filed Republican candidates.  Against state Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York), Gov. Wolf records a 38-21% advantage.  Paired with the other two Republican candidates, the Governor fares better.  If former Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce president Laura Ellsworth were the GOP nominee, the Governor’s advantage would be 51-22%.  Opposite businessman Paul Mango, Mr. Wolf’s general election polling advantage registers a 40-22% spread.

--Jim Ellis