A new small-sample Suffolk University poll conducted for the Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper (6/6-11; 500 OH likely voters) projects a change in the state’s open Governor’s race. This new poll suggests that former Attorney General Richard Cordray (D) has opened up a 43-36% lead over Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine (R). But, among the 16% who responded “undecided”, the overwhelming majority, a 2:1 ratio, are Republican voters. The Suffolk data contradicts other polling that posts Mr. DeWine to a similar lead. The race is open because Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Monmouth University conducted a new poll of the Ohio special congressional election to be decided on August 7th. The survey (6/7-10; 501 OH-12 likely special election voters) finds state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) leading Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Conner (D), 43-33% with the Green Party candidate drawing 1%, and 21% saying they are still undecided.
Sen. Balderson must secure the conservative/Republican base in order to put this race to bed. In the May 8th primary, he scored just a one-point win over local official Melanie Leneghan despite having virtually the entire Ohio political establishment behind his candidacy. The race still appears to be Sen. Balderson’s to lose, but now must be the time frame in which he clinches the special general election. The 12th District congressional seat is open because Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Gallatin/Franklin County) resigned the position in order to accept a job in the private sector.
With Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) both winning their Democratic and Republican primaries on May 8th, Fallon Research conducted a new general election survey (5/21-25; 800 OH likely voters) that finds the incumbent holding a comfortable lead. According to Fallon, Sen. Brown records a 48-34% lead over Rep. Renacci.
As reported above (see Ohio Senate), Fallon Research conducted a new post-primary survey of the statewide campaigns. While Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds the lead in his re-election campaign, it is Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former US Senator, who is staked to a 40-34% advantage over ex-state Attorney General Richard Cordray (D). This race is expected to be as close as the 2010 state Attorney General’s race when Mr. DeWine unseated Mr. Cordray, 47-46%.
On Tuesday, state Sen. Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) nipped local township trustee Melanie Leneghan by one percentage point to win the Republican special election nomination. Sen. Balderson now advances to the special general scheduled in a stand-alone election on August 7th. The winner replaces former Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) who resigned from the House in order to return to the private sector.
He then faces Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor who won the Democratic nomination with 41% of the vote in a field of six candidates. The Republican primary out-drew the Democratic side by over 23,000 voters. Sen. Balderson is the clear favorite to win the special general. He also won the Republican nomination for the full term in the regular cycle, also by a one-percentage point margin.
- Jim Ellis
Also on Tuesday, Anthony Gonzalez, a former professional football player with the Indianapolis Colts after starring at Ohio State University, won the Republican primary to succeed Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) who became the Senate Republican nominee on the same night. Mr. Gonzalez defeated state Rep. Christina Hagan (R-Marlboro Township), 53-41%. He now will oppose healthcare company executive Susan Moran Palmer (D) in the general election. The 56-39% Trump district should easily yield a Gonzalez victory on November 6th.
- Jim Ellis
Last night in the lone Governor’s race on the ballot in the multi-state primary, Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine easily defeated Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, 60-40%. For the Democrats, as expected, former Attorney General and ex-Federal Consumer Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray topped former Rep. Dennis Kucinich and others with 62% of the party vote.
The DeWine-Cordray general election now sets up a re-match between the two former opponents. In 2010, Mr. DeWine, who lost his US Senate seat in 2006, unseated then-Attorney General Cordray, 47-46%, in that year’s general election. The Ohio Governor’s race is open because incumbent John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, OH released their pre-primary polling results (4/24-5/2; 811 OH registered voters; 333 OH likely Democratic primary voters; 323 OH likely Republican primary voters) as the candidates and electorate prepare to go to the polls next Tuesday.
The poll appears to have a couple of methodological flaws. First, the nine-day sampling period is too long and negatively affects reliability. Secondly, there appears to be an over-sampling of females. In a strange result on their political ideology question, more women then men identify themselves as holding particular political views in every category. There are more women than men who are very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, and very conservative. Taking the totals in each category, it appears that almost 59% of the sampling universe is female.
That being said, in the Senate Republican primary, US Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) leads Cleveland investment banker Mike Gibbons, 24-10%. This result is consistent with other published polls but tells us anything can happen on Election Day. Seeing such a high undecided mark heading into the final weekend before any election is quite unusual.
The aforementioned Baldwin Wallace University (see Ohio Senate above) also tested both party primaries in the open Governor’s race. For the Democrats, former Attorney General Richard Cordray posts a 31-15% lead over former US Representative and presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich. Following with less than double-digit support are state Sen. Joe Schiavoni (D-Mahoning Valley) at 7%, and retired state Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill who has 6% support.
For the Republicans, as expected, Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine holds a 52-25% commanding lead over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. The Ohio primary is Tuesday.
Ohio-based Baldwin Wallace University released a poll of the upcoming Senate race (2/28-3/9; 1,011 OH registered voters), and they give Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) a 41-29% lead over Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). If venture capitalist Mike Gibbons were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown’s margin would be 41-31%.
The sampling period is long meaning the poll’s reliability factor is lessened, though the respondent universe size is strong. Additionally, the decided factor is a bit low considering that Sen. Brown is a two-term incumbent, which means more reliability questions. Rep. Renacci is favored to win the Republican nomination, and the general election figures to become highly competitive.
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