Two North Carolina Republican House members faced serious primary challenges on Tuesday.  We reported yesterday that Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) fell to Baptist former pastor Mark Harris in the 9th District Republican primary.  Moving toward the Outer Banks area of the state, 3rd District veteran Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) survived two challengers, but with just 43% of the vote.  Because North Carolina election law only requires a run-off if a candidate falls below 30%, Rep. Jones won re-nomination because he exceeded that support amount even though he did not secure majority support.  

The Congressman even won another term on Tuesday night.  Because the Democrats did not file a candidate in the 3rd District race, Rep. Jones is guaranteed to win re-election in November.  He was first elected in 1994, and says the upcoming term will be his last.

- Jim Ellis

The first incumbent electoral casualty of the 2018 election season occurred last night in southern North Carolina.  Two years ago, after a mid-decade court-ordered redistricting radically changed the 9th Congressional District, making 60% of the territory new to Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) soon before the 2016 primary, he and former Charlotte area pastor Mark Harris fought to a virtual draw in the GOP primary.  In that year, Rep. Pittenger survived by only a 134-vote margin.  Last night, the tables turned.  Mr. Harris denied Rep. Pittenger re-nomination with a 48.5 – 46.2% percentage spread, a margin of 814 votes. 
 
Mr. Harris will now face Democratic businessman Dan McCready, who has already raised almost $2 million for his campaign.  Mr. McCready is also on record saying he will not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House should the Democrats capture the majority in November.  The 9th District, which now stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville along the South Carolina border, looks to be competitive in the fall.  But, President Trump carried the seat by nine percentage points in 2016, and Rep. Pittenger won the general election with 58% of the vote, so the voting trends clearly lean Republican.

--Jim Ellis

In 2016, under the court-mandated mid-decade redistricting plan, Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) received a radically new 9th District that included a population complexion featuring over 60% new constituents.   To a large degree, the re-draw forced Pittenger into a highly competitive Republican primary campaign that he won by just 134 votes of more than 26,600 ballots cast.  The second-place finisher, Charlotte pastor and former US Senate candidate Mark Harris, is running again.
 
Three polls all find Rep. Pittenger with a healthy lead during the last month of the primary campaign.  Survey USA (3/9-13; 1,000 NC-9 registered voters; 375 likely Republican primary voters) found the Congressman leading Mr. Harris, 52-20%.  More recently, Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Pittenger Campaign (4/4-7; 400 NC-9 likely primary voters), posted the incumbent to a 59-26% advantage.  The Red Dome Group, polling for the Harris Campaign (4/4-5; 500 NC-9 likely Republican primary voters) finds a much closer race, but also with Rep. Pittenger leading.  Their numbers produce a 38-30% Pittenger edge.  The North Carolina primary is May 8th.

--Jim Ellis

Veteran US Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville) is no stranger to competitive primaries and faces another in 2018.  In the May 8th North Carolina primary, he faces two Republicans, Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey and computer technician and frequent candidate Phil Law.  No Democrat filed in this contest, so whoever wins the GOP primary will win the seat in November.  The Civitas Institute commissioned a Voter Roll Call poll (3/23-25; 700 NC-3 registered voters; 329 NC-3 likely Republican primary voters) and found Rep. Jones leading his opponents Dacey and Law, 37-28-15%, respectively. 
 
In the last two Republican primaries, Rep. Jones won re-nomination with 65% of the vote (2016), and 51% (2014). 

--Jim Ellis

Chief Deputy Majority Whip Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman) is no stranger to repelling Republican primary challenges.  He has defended himself in three consecutive primaries, and will do so again this May.  Anti-Trump activist Gina Collias announced her candidacy, joining two other Republicans as intra-party challengers to the veteran Congressman.  With a total of three Republicans on the ballot, Rep. McHenry should have an easy run for re-nomination.  Under North Carolina election law, a candidate is nominated once he or she reaches just 40% in the first election.  The Tar Heel State primary is May 8th.  If a run-off becomes necessary, it will occur on July 18th.

--Jim Ellis

A day after three-term US Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) learned that ex-state Rep. Linda Coleman (D) is officially becoming a candidate against him, another Democrat joined the race.  Former software company CEO Ken Romley announced that he will challenge Ms. Coleman for the Democratic nomination, with the primary winner drawing Rep. Holding in the general election.  In a reliably Republican seat, Mr. Holding begins this re-election drive as the clear favorite. 

--Jim Ellis

Three-term US Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) is likely to get a Democratic challenge from a former state Representative.  Yesterday, ex-state Rep. Linda Coleman (D), who lost her seat to a Republican in 2012, decided to re-enter elective politics with an attempt against a formidable GOP incumbent. 
 
The 2nd District, which was newly created in the court ordered redistricting directive shortly before the 2016 North Carolina primary, is a reliable Republican CD.  President Trump carried the seat with just about a ten-percentage point spread, or six full points better than his statewide victory margin.  The new draw originally paired Rep. Holding with former Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) in a GOP primary battle that the Congressman won decisively, and before he would record 57% in the general election.  As such, Mr. Holding begins this re-election drive as a solid favorite. 

--Jim Ellis

Charlotte pastor Mark Harris (R), who has run for both the US Senate and House, just announced that he will seek a Republican primary re-match with Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte).  When North Carolina was forced to re-draw its congressional map before the 2016 election, Rep. Pittenger found himself in a new 9th District with more than 60% new territory.  Considering this and with his business under FBI investigation, the Congressman barely slipped passed Rev. Harris with a scant 134-vote margin.  With the FBI dropping their activity without seeking charges and Pittenger being more familiar with the district, Mr. Harris’ chances of winning in 2018 appear to be lesser.  This primary, however, will be a competitive battle.

--Jim Ellis

Twelve-term Rep. Walter Jones (R-Farmville/Jacksonville) is no stranger to Republican primary challenges, having fended off GOP opponents in 2008, ’12, ’14, and ’16.  It now appears he will do battle against yet another intra-party challenger next year.  Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey announced yesterday that he will enter the Republican primary against Congressman Jones, saying that President Trump “needs someone more supportive” from this particular congressional district.  Mr. Jones has been an ardent foe of the House Republican leadership, but has defended himself well in previous GOP primaries even when being outspent.

--Jim Ellis