Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Health Care Voter Coalition, a liberal organization, ran a push poll on health care issues during the April 30-May 1 period and surveyed 637 Nevada registered voters.  The polling questionnaire was heavily slanted against the Republican position on repealing the current healthcare law.  The telephone script also indicated that Dean Heller (R) and Jacky Rosen (D) are running for the ”US Congress,” instead of the Senate.  While the Senate is part of Congress, as we all know, the political phrase, “running for Congress,” usually refers to the House.  It is unclear whether this ballot description would have changed the results if the US Senate verbiage were properly inserted into the script.
 
In any event, Rep. Rosen leads Sen. Heller, 44-42%, according to this poll, yet more data suggesting this race is already too close to call.  Other recently released surveys have also shown dead heat results between the two Senate contenders.

--Jim Ellis

The Mellman Group, a national Democratic polling firm, tested the upcoming all-but-certain Senate general election campaign between first-term Nevada Sen. Dean Heller (R) and freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson).  According to the ballot test results, Sen. Heller is clinging to a 40-39% edge.  In 2012, Mr. Heller scored a similarly close one-point victory over then-US Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas).
 
The Nevada Senate race is one of the nation’s premier Senate contests.  It is a must-win for Democrats if they are to have any chance of taking control of the legislative body.  If Mr. Heller is re-elected, the Republican majority will be secure.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Mellman Group poll (see NV-Senate above) also tested the open Nevada Governor’s race.  The poll paired Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the likely Republican nominee, and Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D), and then fellow Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D).
 
Against Sisolak, Mr. Laxalt jumps out to a 43-37% edge.  If Ms. Giunchigliani becomes the Democratic nominee, the Laxalt lead would diminish to 40-38%.

--Jim Ellis

National Democratic pollster Expedition Strategies surveyed the open Silver State gubernatorial primary scheduled for June 12th.  According to the poll (3/17-19; 600 NV likely Democratic primary voters) Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani holds a slight 31-27% edge over her local governing board colleague, Commissioner Steve Sisolak.  The result confirms that the Democratic nomination is up for grabs.  The winner will face the eventual GOP nominee, most likely Attorney General Adam Laxalt.  Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

A new Strategic National poll (3/10-11; 400 NV-3 likely voters), taken just before 2016 Republican nominee Danny Tarkanian switched out of the Senate race and into this campaign, finds him substantially leading all of the GOP candidates who announced weeks ago.  According to the data, Mr. Tarkanian scores a 37-10-9-9-1% lead over former television news reporter Michelle Mortensen, state Sen. Scott Hammond, ex-Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman, and former Clark County Republican Party chairman Dave McKeon, respectively.  Upon Tarkanian re-entering the congressional campaign, Ms. Seaman withdrew her candidacy. 
 
Mr. Tarkanian has fared well in Republican primaries, but has failed to win four different general elections.  Should he again become the nominee, look for likely Democratic nominee Susie Lee, the Communities of Nevada School Board president, to be rated as the general election favorite.  The 2016 race was decided by just one percentage point, and in favor of first-time candidate Jacky Rosen.  The freshman Congresswoman is now running for the Senate.

--Jim Ellis

With former Republican congressional nominee Danny Tarkanian (R) pivoting from the US Senate race back into the 3rd Congressional District contest on candidate filing day, more movement has occurred.  According to Daily Kos Elections reporter Jeff Singer, former state Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman has now exited the race, citing Tarkanian’s entry.  Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is holding a fundraiser for state Sen. Scott Hammond, who is expected to be a major contender in this congressional race.  Both Clark County Republican chairman Dave McKeon and former television reporter Michelle Mortensen pledge to continue their campaigns.  The seat is open because freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) is running for Senate.  Democrats appear to be coalescing around school board president Susie Lee.

--Jim Ellis

As detailed in our BIPAC daily insight political column, https://vote.mmp2.org/syndicated/tag/bipacdaily Sen. Dean Heller (R) now faces only minor opposition for the upcoming June 12th Republican primary.  Businessman and frequent political candidate Danny Tarkanian, adhering to a public request from President Trump to exit the race, did so.  Instead, Mr. Tarkanian will enter the open 3rd Congressional District campaign.  Back in 2016, he lost that race 47-46% against now-freshman Representative and current US Senate candidate Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson).  Bypassing a seriously contested primary will now allow Sen. Heller to pool his resources and immediately concentrate on his general election campaign with Ms. Rosen.  A Heller-Rosen general election contest is rated as a toss-up in what is proving to be a swing political state.

--Jim Ellis

Ryan Bundy, son of Cliven Bundy who famously engaged in an armed stand-off with federal agents attempting to seize and sell his assets in order pay grazing fees, announced he is entering the open Governor’s race as an Independent candidate.  Mr. Bundy is no threat to become a major candidate, but any votes he takes away from the eventual Republican nominee, most likely Attorney General Adam Laxalt, could be damaging in what is projected to be a close campaign.
 
Mr. Laxalt faces state Treasurer Dan Schwartz in the Republican primary.  The top Democrats appear to be a pair of Clark County Commissioners, Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani. 

--Jim Ellis

Rumors are rampant that freshman Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), who announced he would not seek a second term because of sexual harassment allegations, is seriously contemplating changing his mind.  With the Nevada candidate filing deadline fast approaching on March 16th, we will soon know if such conjecture has any basis.
 
Rep. Kihuen is not confirming nor denying that he may yet enter the race.  Even if he does, however, neither his re-nomination nor re-election would be a given.  Already, former US Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) has announced his candidacy, meaning a major Democratic primary would ensue if the tainted freshman decides to reverse course.  Also in the race are Democratic state Senator Pat Spearman (D-Las Vegas) and two minor candidates.
 
In the general election, former US Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) has also decided to run again, ostensibly setting up a re-match of the 2014 Hardy-Horsford campaign that the Republican won.  The 4th District was created in 2012 as a result of reapportionment awarding Nevada a new district, but the CD has yet to re-elect an incumbent.  The electorate here will again see major political action regardless of Mr. Kihuen’s political status.

--Jim Ellis

Nevada’s 4th Congressional District was created in 2011, after the 2010 census awarded the state a new district in reapportionment because of massive population growth.  Since that time, the electorate has yet to re-elect an incumbent Congressman.  The original Representative was former state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas).  He would lose to then-state Assemblyman Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) in the 2014 Republican wave election.  Mr. Hardy followed suit and lost to challenger Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) in 2016.  Now with Kihuen retiring over sexual harassment claims, the two defeated members are attempting political comebacks. 
 
Late last week, Mr. Hardy announced his candidacy.  Yesterday, Mr. Horsford declared that he, too, will be a congressional candidate in 2018.  The former Congressman still faces serious Democratic primary opposition in the person of state Sen. Pat Spearman, who says she will not yield to Horsford.  Assuming he wins the party nod, the general election will feature a re-match of the 2014 campaign, but now between former Reps. Hardy and Horsford.  This pairing would guarantee that one of the two returns to Washington.

--Jim Ellis