Missouri candidate filing closed yesterday, and the Secretary of State reports that 20 individuals are challenging Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), but there is little doubt that the August 7th primary will yield the incumbent facing Attorney General Josh Hawley (R).
 
In the House races, all eight incumbents are seeking another term, and each is favored in the ensuing general election.  In total, 53 individuals have filed papers to run for the House of Representatives, including 22 Democrats, 18 Republicans, and 13 minor party registrants. 
 
The Governor’s election is not on the ballot until 2020.

--Jim Ellis

Democrats successfully converted another state legislative seat in a special election earlier in the week.  Missouri featured four special elections for the state House of Representatives, all from red districts.  The 97th HD, in the far southern St. Louis suburbs, went to Democrat Mike Revis on a 52-48% vote.  The result is significant because President Trump scored a 61-33% win here in 2016.
 
Other points also to consider: Republicans held the other three districts so it is difficult to argue that a wave formed for this special election cycle.  Still, three of the four seats did perform substantially under Trump’s showing, but it is important to remember that the turnout was below 3,500 voters in three of the four districts, including HD-97.  This means between a quarter and a third of the voters who participated in the presidential election returned to cast a ballot this week.

--Jim Ellis

Last week, Remington Research, as we reported, released a survey giving Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) a 49-45% lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), the second time this polling firm reported such a finding.  Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Majority Institute (1/8-9; 965 MO registered voters), puts McCaskill back in the lead, however, but with the slightest of margins, 45-44%.  The sampling universe appears to contain a Democratic skew, however.  In a state that has lurched to the right since the turn of the century, this sample actually gave the Democrats a 37-34% plurality.  Together, the two polls suggest that the Senate race is clearly within the margin of polling error and should be considered a toss-up, even at this early stage of the election cycle.

--Jim Ellis

Remington Research again tested the tight Missouri Senate race with their latest survey (1/3-4; 1,122 MO likely voters), and once more found the challenger leading Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.   Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) continues to maintain a small lead.  On this ballot test, Mr. Hawley holds a 49-45% edge over the two-term incumbent.  The Missouri race has clearly moved into position as the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the country.

--Jim Ellis

Remington Research went into the field just as Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) was announcing his challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).  The survey (10/11-12; 965 MO likely voters) finds the incumbent trailing early.  According to the ballot test data, Mr. Hawley jumps out to a tight 48-45% edge over the two-term Senator. 
 
Interestingly, though President Trump (48:47% favorable to unfavorable) and Gov. Eric Greitens’ (46:39% positive to negative) job approval indexes were tested, the questionnaire apparently did not include such a question about either Sen. McCaskill or AG Hawley.  This is the first of what will be a large number of Missouri Senate polls that we can count on seeing during the next year.

--Jim Ellis

Last week, Attorney General Josh Hawley announced his Senate candidacy, and hopes to have a united Republican Party behind him.  Another significant step toward that goal occurred yesterday as the strongest GOP entry opposite Mr. Hawley, state Rep. Paul Curtman (R-Pacific/ Franklin County) dropped his bid for Senate, and will instead enter the state Auditor’s race.  With Hawley quickly nailing down his GOP base, we will see an early start to his general election challenge against two-term incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).  The Missouri race could well become the Republicans’ top conversion opportunity.

--Jim Ellis

After Republican leaders wooed him for months to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), first-term Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) announced yesterday that he will indeed make the race.  The Missouri contest could well become the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity now that Mr. Hawley is an official candidate.  State Rep. Paul Curtman (R-Pacific/Franklin County) is already in the Republican primary race, as are three other minor candidates so it will be interesting to see if any movement happens among these contenders now that Mr. Hawley has opened a federal campaign committee.  In the early going, the Attorney General has to be rated as a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination next August.
 
Sen. McCaskill was first elected in 2006, with a 49-47% victory over then-Sen. Jim Talent (R).  Her re-election in 2012 came about in large part to her campaign apparatus involving itself in the Republican primary and helping choose the GOP nominee.  The plan worked, and she easily defeated then-Rep. Todd Akin (R-St. Louis County), 55-39%.  This year, however, she will face one of the better Republican challengers in the country in a state that is moving further to the right than when she last appeared on the ballot.

--Jim Ellis

Reports indicate that state Treasurer Eric Schmitt (R) has decided not to pursue a US Senate campaign for 2018.  This is one more indication that Attorney General Josh Hawley (R), who has formed an exploratory committee, will enter the race.  Mr. Hawley is the top Republican prospect.  Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is commonly viewed as the most vulnerable Democrat standing for re-election in 2018.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia), who had been openly considering running for the Senate next year, announced yesterday that she will not enter the statewide campaign.  The move could be a precursor toward Attorney General Josh Hawley announcing his candidacy.  Mr. Hawley has been the party leadership’s favorite to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), even receiving a recruitment call last week from Vice President Mike Pence.  Much attention has been paid to this contest in the past few days, and Missouri continues to be arguably the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity.  Recent polling has shown several potential GOP candidates, including both AG Hawley and Rep. Hartzler, running a few points ahead of Sen. McCaskill.

--Jim Ellis

Last week, as reported here, Remington Research released their late June survey that tested four Republican potential US Senate candidates, three House members and a statewide official, but, curiously, did not include the man many think is the leading GOP candidate, Attorney General Josh Hawley.  While Remington Research did not test the new AG, the Club for Growth did so in their Show Me State poll and published the results.  According to the Club study (Fabrizio, Lee & Associates; 7/10-11; 500 MO likely Republican primary voters), the first-term Attorney General maintains a small four-point lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), 46-42%.  This tracks with the Remington data in that their four tested Republicans were also projected to be holding an advantage over the incumbent Senator of similar margins.

--Jim Ellis