Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Bill Schuette for Governor campaign (2/10-13; 800 MI previous Republican primary voters), finds the Attorney General in strong shape to capture the open GOP gubernatorial nomination.  According to the results, Mr. Schuette leads Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, 42-15%, with state Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-East Lansing) tallying only 5% support.  The Michigan primary isn’t until August 7th, so much time remains for change.  Former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer appears to be the leading Democratic candidate.  Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

Investment advisor John Conyers III, son of resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to become a candidate in the special election to replace his father.  The special schedule will run concurrently with the regular election calendar.  The younger Conyers named his new congressional committee, “Conyers to Conyers.”  Also in the field of candidates is his cousin, state Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit).  The Democrats will hold the seat in November, but whether or not a Conyers carries the day still remains to be decided.

--Jim Ellis

Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has issued the special election calendar to fill resigned Rep. John Conyers’ (D-Detroit) seat.  The Governor’s decision means the seat will be vacant for virtually one year.  The 13th District special election will run concurrently with the regular election schedule, meaning the primary will be August 7th, with the special and regular general elections occurring on the same date, November 6, 2018.   State Sens. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit), the former Congressman’s nephew, and Coleman Young II (D-Detroit), son of former Mayor Coleman Young, are both announced candidates.  The latter man is fresh from being destroyed in the 2017 Detroit Mayor’s race, losing to incumbent Mike Duggan, 72-27%. 

--Jim Ellis

Last week an erroneous report from the New York Daily News and others stated that the Dean of the US House, embattled Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), had decided not to seek re-election next year.  That story was quickly refuted, but yesterday the 53-year congressional veteran went a step further than simply not appearing on the 2018 ballot as he resigned the seat, effective immediately.  This means that Gov. Rick Snyder (R) will call a special election to fill the new vacancy for sometime early next year. 
 
In his resignation announcement, Rep. Conyers endorsed his son, John Conyers III, a partner in a hedge fund investment group, as his successor.  Another Conyers relative, the Congressman’s nephew, state Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit), also declared his own candidacy for the 13th District.  The seat’s electorate, which voted 79% for Hillary Clinton and supported President Obama in 2012 with an 85.2 vote percentage, will remain in Democratic hands regardless if a Conyers family member or another future candidate secures the special election party nomination.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Wayne County), who will complete his 18th term in the House at the end of this congressional session, announced he will not seek re-election next year.  The 86-year old Congressman’s retirement will create what should be a crowded Democratic primary in a seat that supported Hillary Clinton with a 51-44% vote spread.  In 2012, this district’s electorate gave President Obama a more substantial 57-42% victory margin.

--Jim Ellis

Apparently, last week’s news reports saying that embattled Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) had announced his decision not to seek re-election appears to have over-stated his position.  Officially, the Congressman is said to be weighing his options about 2018, but has not fully decided upon a course of action.  Most predict he will still opt to retire, but the veteran Congressman has not yet officially done so.  Even if he decides to run, the 88-year old Dean of the House who was originally elected in 1964, will likely face stiff Democratic primary opposition in light of the sexual harassment controversy that has arisen around him.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and the entire Democratic elected leadership has already called upon Mr. Conyers to resign his seat. 

--Jim Ellis

Bending to the sexual harassment allegations that have dogged him for the past week, Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), originally coming to office in 1964, announced that he will not seek re-election next year.  The development means that 38 seats will come open in the next election, including the PA-18 vacant seat that heads to special election on March 13th.   Michigan’s 13th District is safely Democratic, so the August 7th partisan primary will determine Mr. Conyers’ successor.  The Congressman will retire as the Dean of the House, and is the last member of either chamber who was originally elected in the 1960s.  He entered the House on the same night when Lyndon Johnson won his full term as President, just one year after John F. Kennedy was assassinated.

--Jim Ellis

As long expected, Lt. Gov. Brian Calley finally announced that he will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary, setting up a battle against Attorney General and former US Congressman Bill Schuette.  The Michigan Governor’s race is one of national importance since this is a critical redistricting state come 2021.  The Governor elected in 2018 will carry redistricting veto power.  Early polling and fundraising gives Attorney General Schuette a significant Republican primary lead.  Democrats feature former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer as their top candidate, to date.  Candidate filing does not end until April 24th for the August 7th primary, so both parties could see other potential candidates stepping forward.  Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

On the heels of Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) announcing that he will not enter the US Senate race to challenge three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), another individual has come forward.  Michigan venture capitalist Sandy Pensler, founder of Pensler Capital, announced that he will run for the Senate.  He joins a Republican primary field that includes Detroit area manufacturing company CEO and former Army Ranger John James and retired state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young.  Sen. Stabenow is favored for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

Veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who had been contemplating entering the US Senate campaign for the past several months, announced his intentions on Friday.  Instead of running statewide, Mr. Upton will seek a 17th term from his western Michigan US House district.  For six years, Rep. Upton was chairman of the Energy & Commerce Committee, serving his allotted time under the conference term limit rule.  Already, six Democrats have announced their candidacies against Mr. Upton, including Paul Clements, the Democratic nominee for the last two elections. 

--Jim Ellis