Retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas’ (D-Lowell) open 3rd District congressional seat is creating a great deal of interest within the Massachusetts political community.  A total of 13 Democrats have announced their candidacies for the seat along with one Republican, business owner Rick Green.  State Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover) just released the results of her EMC Research survey (3/14-19; 500 MA-3 likely Democratic primary voters), which finds the poll sponsor leading the primary field with 19% support.  Trailing in second place at 8% is former Boston mayoral chief of staff Dan Koh.  All others do not break 5% preference. 

--Jim Ellis

A new WBUR Boston Public Radio poll (3/16-18; 504 MA registered voters) tested Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) against two potential Republican opponents as she runs for her first re-election.  According to the data, Sen. Warren posts a 53:36% positive to negative personal favorability rating.  Paired with former state Consumer Affairs Department director Beth Lindstrom (R), Sen. Warren forges a 56-33% advantage.  Against state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R-Norwell), Ms. Warren scores a slightly stronger 58-32%.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned WBUR Boston Public Radio poll (See MA-Senate above) finds first-term Republican Gov. Charlie Baker in strong shape heading into his first re-election.  With a favorability index of 66:14%, Gov. Baker leads Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D), 54-28%, and the latter man is actually fares best among the three Democrats tested.  Though Massachusetts is one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, it has a penchant for electing Republican Governors.  The GOP has won five of the last seven gubernatorial elections since former Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis did not seek re-election in 1990.

--Jim Ellis

New indications are coming from Massachusetts that again suggest Boston at-large City Councilor Ayanna Pressley’s Democratic primary challenge to ten-term veteran Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) is indeed serious.  While Ms. Pressley is not yet earning many public endorsements, she is exerting enough pressure to keep previous key Capuano allies on the political sidelines according to a report from Jeff Singer at the Daily Kos Elections blog. 
 
So far, the state’s Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey have not taken a position in the race, nor have Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and retiring Congresswoman Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell), one of only two women in the all-Democratic Massachusetts delegation.  Also, one of the state’s largest unions, the Service Employees International Union, has not endorsed the Congressman and may well back his insurgent challenger according to the organization’s executive director.  Though Rep. Capuano has a strong liberal voting record, Ms. Pressley attacks him for not being an active legislator.

--Jim Ellis

Last month, Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley launched her Democratic primary challenge to veteran Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville).  The MassInc Polling Group, surveying the 7th District Democratic primary electorate for WBUR Public Radio in Boston (2/9-11; 402 MA-7 registered voters) found Rep. Capuano jumping out to an early 47-35% advantage when counting respondents who support and lean toward each candidate.  Both individuals are highly rated.  Rep. Capuano has a 60:7% favorability ratio, while Ms. Pressley scores a solid 42:7%. 
 
There is a warning sign in this poll for the Congressman, however.  Within the city of Boston, and Ms. Pressley holds one of the at-large seats, she leads Mr. Capuano, 46-35%.  Outside of the city, the incumbent is dominant.  He leads Ms. Pressley, 66-17%, among the 1/3 of the district’s constituency who reside outside of Boston.

--Jim Ellis

With already 12 Democrats in the race vying to replace retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell), the field shrunk by a candidate yesterday.  Former Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen (D) decided to end his congressional campaign.  His move entering this particular race never made much sense.  Mr. Mazen is from a city that is nowhere near the 3rd District, forcing him to compete with more than ten others who at least live in the central population area.  His time on the City Council would have netted him very little politically because none of the constituents who he previously served would be eligible to vote for him.  Therefore, he always stood little chance of success, and obviously came to a recent similar conclusion; hence, his withdrawal announcement.  The Massachusetts primary is not scheduled until September 4th, so this nomination campaign is merely beginning.

--Jim Ellis

Earlier in the year, Massachusetts Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville/Cambridge) drew a Democratic primary challenge from Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen, but that threat ended when the latter man hopped into the open 3rd District race.  Now, Rep. Capuano may face a new primary opponent.  According to a Politico publication story, Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley, who is elected citywide as one of four at-large members, is seriously considering challenging Mr. Capuano next year.  The Massachusetts candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 5th for the late September 18th state primary, so plenty of time remains for many political moves to occur.  

--Jim Ellis

The Massachusetts candidate filing deadline is still over six months away, but already 13 Democrats have announced for the party nomination to run in the open 3rd District.  The field includes businessman Keith St. John, who declared his candidacy this weekend.  In August, Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) announced that she would not seek a seventh term, which set the political machinations into motion.  The field includes Daniel Koh, the former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, state Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover), state Rep. Juana Matias (D-Lawrence), former Ambassador Rufus Gifford, and nine businessmen, local officials, and activists.  Democrats will likely hold the seat, but the September 18th primary will be a free-for-all.

--Jim Ellis

Peter Tedeschi (R), chairman of the Tedeschi Food Shops, which owns 181 stores throughout New England, announced that he will challenge four-term Rep. Bill Keating (D-Bourne/Cape Cod) next year in a contest that could become competitive.  The district begins south of Boston hugging the Atlantic Ocean coastline and includes the entire Cape Cod peninsula.   It then moves west to annex the cities of Fall River and New Bedford.  Though reliably Democratic, this district can swing Republican in statewide contests.  Gov. Charlie Baker (R) will have to run well here to win re-election, thus ensuring a strong Republican turnout operation within the CD boundaries.  Mr. Keating has averaged an underwhelming 52.7% average victory margin in his four congressional races, weak for a Massachusetts Democrat.  This race could become one to watch.

--Jim Ellis

The first candidate in this eastern Massachusetts open congressional race to release 2nd quarter fundraising numbers did so in eyebrow raising fashion.  Dan Koh, former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, released his exploratory fundraising figures and reports that over $755,000 has already been received from individuals.  Added to his own loan of $50,000, the Koh exploratory committee has already recorded and impressive $805,000 in receipts.  This, for a nomination campaign that won’t be decided until next September.  Clearly the financial totals show Mr. Koh has inside support but, with virtually no name identification among the Democratic electorate, he will need to spend heavily in order to draw sufficient support to claim the nomination.  Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) is retiring after six terms.

--Jim Ellis