A new Burton Research & Strategies survey (3/4-8; 10-11; 600 MD registered voters) finds Gov. Larry Hogan (R) expanding his previously published polling leads over Democrats Rushern Baker and Kevin Kamenetz.  When paired with Mr. Baker, the Prince Georges County Executive, Gov. Hogan scores a 50-29% major advantage.  If Mr. Kamenetz, the Baltimore County Executive, were his opponent the Governor’s margin grows to an even larger 57-26%. 
 
Though Mr. Hogan’s approval numbers are among the strongest of all Governors, Maryland’s Democratic voting legacy will eventually make the general election a close affair.  While seven other Democrats are in the gubernatorial race, including former NAACP President Ben Jealous, the Burton group only released numbers associated with Messrs. Baker and Kamenetz.

--Jim Ellis

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research also took a look at the developing Maryland gubernatorial campaign.  Here, despite representing one of the most loyal of Democratic states, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan maintains excellent job approval ratings.  According to this latest poll (2/20-22; 625 MD registered voters), the Governor’s favorability index is 63:26% positive to negative. 
 
The approval rating also translates into substantial leads for him in the ballot test.  Against Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, who leads in Democratic primary polling, Gov. Hogan would score a 51-36% margin.  If Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz were the Democratic nominee, the Governor’s margin would be a similar 49-34%.  Should NAACP president Ben Jealous advance to the general election, Gov. Hogan’s preference rating is 50-33%. 

--Jim Ellis

A new Goucher Poll (2/12-17; 800 MD adults; 658 MD registered voters) finds Sen. Ben Cardin (D) crushing convicted US spy Chelsea Manning in the upcoming June 26th Democratic primary.  According to the Goucher data, Sen. Cardin begins the race with a 61-17% advantage, which is likely an insurmountable margin for the flawed challenger to overcome.  Sen. Cardin is seen as a sure bet to be re-nominated and win a third term in the general election.
 
--Jim Ellis

The same Goucher Poll cited above in the Maryland Senate section also tested the upcoming Governor’s race.  Incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, despite representing one of America’s most Democratic states, still enjoys a strong 61% positive favorability rating.  In the race for the Democratic nomination, three candidates are bunched near the top, but no one with clear strong support. 
 
Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker is first with 19%, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz who registers 12% backing.  Trailing both is former NAACP president Ben Jealous at 10 percent.  No other candidate even reaches the 4% plateau.  Clearly, this Democratic primary contest is wide open.

--Jim Ellis

Gonzales Research & Media Services, a Maryland-based survey research firm, yesterday released the results of their year-end Democratic gubernatorial primary poll (12/27-1/5; 501 MD likely Democratic primary voters) and found Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker jumping out to an early advantage.  According to the Gonzales results, Mr. Baker would capture 24% support, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and ex-NAACP national president Ben Jealous with 14% apiece, while state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) tallies five percent.  Four more minor candidates all recorded support factors of less than two percent. 
 
The Maryland candidate filing deadline will close on February 27th, but the Democratic field appears set.  The party primaries are scheduled for June 26th.  The eventual Democratic nominee will face incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall election.

--Jim Ellis

On Friday, the US Supreme Court announced that it would hear the redistricting lawsuit that Maryland Republicans are bringing, challenging the state’s current congressional boundaries as being a political gerrymander.  The court has already heard a similar case from Wisconsin.  States awaiting that decision, which should be issued before the end of April, are North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia (for the state legislature).  Should the high court side with the plaintiffs in either Wisconsin or Maryland, the possibility exists that some political boundaries could be re-drawn before the 2018 election.  Such an exercise would have a major effect upon how the current election cycle unfolds.

--Jim Ellis

Former Defense Department official Amie Hoeber (R), who held Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac) to a 56-40% victory margin last November, announced that she will enter the open seat primary next year and should have the inside track toward winning the party nomination.  Democrats are favored to hold the seat and have three significant candidates comprising their field: state Sen. Roger Manno (D-Montgomery County), state Delegate Aruna Miller (D-Montgomery County), and Total Wine, Inc. founder and CEO David Trone. 

--Jim Ellis

Consultant Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, wife of Maryland US Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore), announced that she will enter the already crowded Democratic primary to oppose Republican Gov. Larry Hogan next year.  This will be Ms. Rockeymoore Cummings’ first run for elective office although she has a political background.  Already in the Democratic contest are Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, former NAACP President Ben Jealous, state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County), and four other less prominent candidates.  The general election will be highly competitive.  Early polling gives Gov. Hogan leads of varying degrees against all potential Democratic nominees.

--Jim Ellis

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research organization released the results of their new Maryland poll (9/27-30; 625 MD registered voters), testing Republican Gov. Larry Hogan’s political strength as he seeks re-election in this most Democratic of states.  Brandishing a very strong job approval rating of 61:26% favorable to unfavorable, Gov. Hogan leads all potential Democratic challengers. 
 
Opposite Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker, the Hogan margin is 46-39%.  He records a 48-35% spread over Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, 49-33% over former NAACP President Ben Jealous, and 49-30% against state Sen. Richard Madaleno (D-Montgomery County).  Though the ballot test results are not as strong as the job approval ratings might lead one to believe, any Republican holding high single to double-digit leads over Democratic core candidates is running as strongly as one could reasonably project.

--Jim Ellis