Because Independents often win elections in Maine, and their Governor has won the last two electoral contests with less than 40% of the vote, Pine Tree State voters adopted a new instant run-off system through statewide ballot proposition, which will now be put to the test. 
 
Last night’s Democratic gubernatorial primary ended with appointed Attorney General Janet Mills outpacing businessman Adam Cote 33-28%, but the race is far from over.  In years past, Ms. Mills would have been declared the primary winner, but now the instant run-off system takes effect because no one obtained majority support.
 
Under the procedure, now in use for the first time, the last place finisher’s votes among the eight candidates will be distributed to the other seven candidates.  In the primary, voters ranked their preferences from one to eight among the contenders.  A last place finisher’s votes are then distributed to the others in the order that the last place finisher’s voters chose.  Once those are distributed, the new last place finisher’s votes are then distributed according to stated preference, and so forth until a winner is decided.  The distribution will begin Friday, meaning it is likely we won’t have a new Democratic nominee until sometime next week. 
 
On the Republican side, businessman Shawn Moody won the party nomination outright, so he automatically advances into the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Though candidate filing has already been completed, Maine state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Waldo County) yesterday announced that he is dropping his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Paul LePage (R).  Originally, five Republicans, seven Democrats, and six Independents had filed to run in the statewide campaign.  Though Gov. LePage is not supporting a particular Republican candidate, he did previously announce his opposition to Thibodeau.  The general election is viewed to be a toss-up.  The Maine primary is scheduled for June 12th.

--Jim Ellis

Two Democrats announced yesterday that they are withdrawing from the open Governor’s race, even before it officially begins.  Former Bangor Mayor Sean Faircloth, who contemplated for a long while before announcing his candidacy, has quickly backtracked and will exit.  The same for ex-state Sen. James Boyle (D-Scarborough).  The departing pair still leaves the Democrats with a dozen candidates including Attorney General Janet Mills, former state House Speaker Mark Eves (D-North Berwick), and state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook).
 
Republicans feature five announced candidates, including state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), former Maine Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew, state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport).  The candidate filing deadline is March 15th for the June 12th primary.

--Jim Ellis

The Democratic field is poised to gain another entrant, which would increase the size of the field to an even dozen candidates.  Former Bangor Mayor Sean Faircloth (D) has semi-officially joined the campaign.  While he filed his papers to run with the Bureau of Elections, Mr. Faircloth says he still hasn’t made a final decision to actually become an active candidate.  The Democratic field features Attorney General Janet Mills, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, and two former state legislators, among others.

--Jim Ellis

Five-term US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/ Portland) had been publicly toying with the idea of entering the open Maine Governor’s race next year, and promised a decision before the end of this year.  In keeping to her word, Rep. Pingree announced yesterday that she will focus on her career in Congress and will seek a sixth term from her 1st Congressional District. 
 
The Democratic field already numbers 11 candidates, including Attorney General Janet Mills, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, two former state legislators, and a combination of business people, educators, and political activists.  Five Republicans, including state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport), are in the GOP primary.  Gov. Paul LePage (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

We haven’t heard much lately from Maine Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), but the Congresswoman did confirm this week that she is still considering entering next year’s competitive open Governor’s race.   Ten Democrats have already announced for the position, including Attorney General Janet Mills (an appointed position in Maine), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), and ex-state Sen. Jim Boyle.  Republicans are led by state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Danforth/Washington County), and former state Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew.  Gov. Paul LePage (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. 

--Jim Ellis

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has now made public her long-awaited decision about running for Governor next year.  In a series of interviews on Friday, Sen. Collins indicated her belief that she can best help her constituency by staying in the Senate.  Therefore, she will not run enter the 2018 open Governor’s contest.  Sen. Collins was in favorable position to run for the state’s top post because she would not have had to risk her current position.   Her particular Senate seat next comes in-cycle in 2020. 
 
Originally, it looked like Ms. Collins might have a tough time securing the gubernatorial nomination against conservative former state Department of Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew, but two more conservatives, State Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon) and House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport), have since become candidates.  Therefore, with three candidates potentially fracturing the conservative primary vote, Sen. Collins would have had a reasonable path to the nomination, and certainly been favored in the general. 
 
With multiple candidates from both parties already vying for their respective party nominations, and Maine having a history of electing Independents, this open race could become a toss-up.  Gov. Paul LePage (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

The Global Strategy Group ran a survey for what they term is an unidentified outside organization, testing two-term Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) and environmental activist Lucas St. Clair (D).  The poll (10/2-5; 625 ME-2 interviews; 400 likely 2018 general election voters; 300 likely ME-2 Democratic primary voters) finds that Mr. St. Clair, the son of Burt Bees products founder Roxanne Quimby and who led the charge for the Katahdin Woods and Waters National Monument projects, easily leading the Democratic nomination battle.  According to the GSG results, Mr. St. Clair has a 40-8% advantage over state Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston).  When the Democratic polling leader is paired with Rep. Poliquin, the Congressman clings to a 44-41% edge.
 
St. Clair’s activity to ban hunting and limit access to key areas of northern Maine may do him well in obtaining the Democratic nomination, but is also a difficult sell in the general election.  President Trump carried ME-2, and did so by winning nine of the CD’s eleven counties.  And, in an area where hunting and gun ownership is a staple for the region’s residents, St. Clair’s activism background and approach will likely be met with derision among those same voters who supported Trump over Hillary Clinton.  Still, armed with sizable personal resources that will allow him to self-fund, and Poliquin being an adept fundraiser in his own right (he has already raised $1.7 million for his 2018 race and has $1.52 million in the bank), this northern Maine congressional campaign will likely become a top tier campaign next year.

--Jim Ellis

The Maine Republican gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Gov. Paul LePage (R) got more crowded late this week.  State Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon Falls) announced that he will run for Governor, joining former Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport) in the GOP primary.   In the meantime, Sen. Susan Collins (R) says she will make her decision about running for Governor public sometime in early October. 
 
The Mason candidacy now means three contenders are all vying for the most conservative part of the Maine Republican base.  Splitting the vote this many ways could provide Sen. Collins a better opening to the nomination since conservative primary voters, a group not inclined to back the veteran US Senator, will be badly fractured.  Nine Democrats, including Attorney General Janet Mills and former state House Speaker Mark Eves are actively running for the party nomination.

--Jim Ellis

Two state legislative leaders are on the verge of hopping into the Governor’s race.  State House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Newport), an ally of Gov. Paul LePage (R), formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee but left no doubt that he is planning to run.  State Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon Falls), who was an active supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the 2016 Maine presidential primary, is also planning to soon announce his statewide candidacy. 
 
Both men are from the Republican Party’s conservative wing.  This will make former Health & Human Services Department Secretary Mary Mayhew’s path to the GOP nomination more difficult in that she, Mason, and Fredette all generally come from the same ideological sector.  Should Sen. Susan Collins (R) become a gubernatorial contender, and she says a decision will be forthcoming in the fall, the new candidate configuration would help divide the conservative base, possibly allowing the centrist Senator to attract enough support to win the nomination. 

--Jim Ellis