The first post March 20th primary poll was released into the public domain, and the Ogden & Fry/ABC News 7 survey (3/23; 667 IL registered voters) finds the new Democratic nominee, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker jumping out to a commanding lead over incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner (R).  The data reports a 46-28% Pritzker advantage.  Such a result is not particularly surprising.  Gov. Rauner has poor approval ratings and failed to reach even 52% in his own Republican primary.

--Jim Ellis

For most of Tuesday night, financial advisor Kelly Mazeski led environmental businessman Sean Casten by a relatively small margin through 84% of the 6th District Democratic primary vote count.  But, throughout the night as the final ballots were counted, Mr. Casten reversed the pervasive trend and pulled out a 30-27% plurality win.  Mr. Casten will now face veteran Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) in what will be a competitive general election campaign.  Both Casten and Mazeski largely self-funded their own campaigns.  Ms. Mazeski spent the most money early, but Mr. Casten kept his political powder dry for use in the final days before the election and clearly made the better-timed financial decisions.

--Jim Ellis

Former Gov. Pat Quinn (D), who current incumbent Bruce Rauner (R) unseated in 2014, was attempting a political comeback in running for the open Attorney General’s position.  But, he failed on Tuesday night to advance into the general election.   State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) defeated Mr. Quinn 30-27% to claim the Democratic nomination and becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election to replace retiring four-term Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D).  

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) managed to survive a very difficult primary challenge from media consultant Marie Newman.  The Congressman was re-nominated for an eighth term with just 51% of the district vote.  His stronger performance in Cook County allowed him to capture the district majority despite losing Will County and the sliver of DuPage County to Ms. Newman.  Mr. Lipinski is one of the few remaining Blue Dog Democrats, while Ms. Newman came at him hard as part of the party’s left faction.  Rep. Lipinski will have little trouble in winning the general election.
 
Other key congressional match-ups are now set.  Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton) will face climate change advocate and energy business owner Sean Casten (D) in the general election.  Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale) is paired with St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly (D) in two of the more competitive races in the state.

--Jim Ellis

Gov. Bruce Rauner barely survived his Republican primary challenge, winning a scant 52-48% victory over state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton).  Venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who at least spent $65 million of his own money to capture the party nomination, won his primary with a 45-27-24% win over state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago) and businessman Chris Kennedy, the son of Robert F. Kennedy.  Despite Gov. Rauner being the incumbent, his poor primary performance reveals Republican base trouble thus making Pritzker the early favorite to convert the Illinois Governor’s mansion to the Democratic column.

--Jim Ellis

Vermont Senator and former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders yesterday announced his support of Democratic challenger Marie Newman, who is attempting to deny veteran Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) re-nomination in the March 20th Democratic primary.  The race is clearly heating up.  An outside organization supporting Lipinski, called United for Progress, just opened with a six-figure negative ad campaign against Newman.  The tactics used in this race could be a microcosm of what is to come in major Democratic primaries throughout the country.

--Jim Ellis

Public Policy Polling, surveying for NARAL Pro Choice America (2/27-28; 648 IL-3 likely Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs) leading his primary challenger, media consultant Marie Newman, but by only a slim 43-41% margin.
 
It’s not unusual for PPP polls, when conducted for ideological organizations, to lean heavily toward the sponsor’s candidate of choice and this may be another such example.  In the IL-3 case, women are 55% of the respondent sample and senior citizens, within the age segmentation, are the least sampled even though they traditionally have the best voter turnout percentages.  Therefore, this particular poll appears skewed in Newman’s favor.
 
Ms. Newman enjoys support from most of the national liberal ideological groups, and local Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) and Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston), but Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) backs the incumbent.  The primary is March 20th, and this race is nearing its crescendo.

--Jim Ellis

The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute of Southern Illinois University conducted a survey for the state’s upcoming March 20th primary election.  According to the data (2/19-25; 1,001 IL registered voters; 472 likely Democratic voters; 259 likely Republican primary voters), the results appear consistent with other recent research studies.  The Simon Poll finds venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who has already spent $56 million for his campaign, leading state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago) and businessman Chris Kennedy, son of the late Attorney General and US Senator Robert F. Kennedy, 31-21-17%, respectively. 
 
Though Mr. Pritzker continues to maintain the edge and is the favorite heading into the final campaign stretch, his margin is less impressive when considering the amount of campaign money expended. 
 
On the Republican side, Gov. Bruce Rauner tops state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R-Wheaton), 51-31%.  But, the overall news is not particularly good for the Governor.  When the Republican incumbent is paired with Mr. Pritzker in a pre-primary general election heat, the Democrat jumps out to a 50-35% major advantage.

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, we reported upon venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker’s Global Strategy Group poll that found him holding a 37-23-21% lead over businessman Chris Kennedy, son of former Attorney General and US Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago).  Now, Sen. Biss released his ALG Research survey (2/6-11; 500 IL likely Democratic primary voters), which presents results that aren’t too different from Pritzker’s release. 
 
According to ALG, Mr. Pritzker leads Sen. Biss and Mr. Kennedy, 32-24-24%.  Thus, we have two candidate polls both showing the race getting tighter despite heavy spending from Pritzker, but with the leader maintaining a significant edge.  The Illinois primary is March 20th, so this campaign is just entering the prime time phase.

--Jim Ellis

The Global Strategy Group conducted a new poll for venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker (2/9-13; 802 IL likely Democratic primary voters), who has already invested $56 million into his gubernatorial campaign.  According to their results, Mr. Pritzker holds a 37-23-21% lead over businessman Chris Kennedy, son of former Attorney General and US Senator Robert F. Kennedy, pictures of whom he is featuring in his media ads, and state Sen. Daniel Biss (D-Chicago). 
 
Despite Mr. Pritzker’s heavy spending and enduring regular attacks from Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, who is also putting millions into electronic advertising in the early going, the Democratic race is tightening as the candidates move into the final four weeks before the early primary.  The election is scheduled for March 20th. 
 
Though Mr. Rauner is the incumbent, his poor favorability ratings coupled with Illinois’ normal Democratic voting patterns, make this state a key conversion opportunity for a party that holds every major statewide office with the exception of Governor.
 
--Jim Ellis