Current Gov. David Ige (D) made national political news in 2014 when he trounced incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie, 66-31% in the Democratic primary, but things have gone badly for him since that time.  Last week we reported upon a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey that found US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading him for the August 11th Hawaii Democratic primary, 47-27%. 
 
Now, a group of key Democratic state legislative leaders have jointly endorsed Rep. Hanabusa.  State Senate President Ron Kouchi (D-Kauai), state House Speaker Scott Saiki (D-Honolulu), Senate Ways & Means Committee chairman Donovan Dela Cruz (D-Honolulu), and House Finance Committee chair Sylvia Luke (D-Makiki) all publicly agreed to join the Hanabusa campaign finance team.

--Jim Ellis

Four years ago, then-state Sen. David Ige (D) rocked Hawaii politics with his 66-31% rout of sitting Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the 2014 Democratic primary.  Now, the tables appear to be turning.  A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (3/13-18; 800 HI voters; 498 HI likely Democratic primary voters) finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) crushing Gov. Ige, 47-27%, if the August 11th primary election were held today.  A series of mis-steps, including the highly publicized false alarm that the state was under an imminent nuclear attack, has hampered the Governor’s job approval rating.

--Jim Ellis

Former one-term US Rep. Charles Djou (R-Honolulu) was one of the individuals looking to enter the open 1st Congressional District race now that incumbent Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is challenging Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary.  In an announcement yesterday, Mr. Djou said he will not become a congressional candidate in 2018, preferring to launch another run to become Mayor of Honolulu in the 2020 election.
 
Democrats are already fielding four candidates, including Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Honolulu), state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim (D-Aiea), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin.  Republicans have yet to field a candidate.  At this point, Democrats must be rated heavy favorites to retain the seat.

--Jim Ellis

Several weeks ago, Attorney General Doug Chin announced that he would enter the open 1st District Democratic primary and that he would resign his appointed position in March.  Now, he accepts the Lt. Governor’s appointment since incumbent Shan Tsutsui (D) resigned to take a position in the private sector.  But, Mr. Chin will only serve on an interim basis and continue in his campaign for Congress.  Gov. David Ige (D) first offered the Lt. Governor’s office to both state Senate President Ron Kouchi (D), and then state House Speaker Scott Saiki (D) but each declined to accept. 
 
Mr. Chin faces state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D-Aiea), state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Kihei), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin in the party primary.  Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is vacating the congressional seat to challenge Gov. Ige in the statewide Democratic primary.  The Democratic congressional nominee will become the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

As expected, Attorney General Doug Chin (D) officially became a congressional candidate in the open 1st District earlier this week.  Mr. Chin made national headlines when he sued the Trump Administration over the travel ban Executive Order that the President issued early in his tenure.  Mr. Chin has never run for elective office, however, as the AG is an appointed position in Hawaii.  He also served as Honolulu’s City Manager, and as a prosecuting attorney.  Currently in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D-Moanalua), state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Kihei), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin.  Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is leaving the seat to challenge Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary.

--Jim Ellis

Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho (D) had been talking about launching a primary challenge to Gov. David Ige.  With US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa already in the race, however, the path for Carvalho to upset them both becomes very narrow.  Considering the new political landscape, Mr. Carvalho yesterday announced that he will run for Lt. Governor, instead.  Incumbent Shan Tsutsui (D) has already announced he is not seeking re-election.  But, Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa and three state Senators are already in the Democratic primary, thereby yielding a highly competitive nomination contest. 

--Jim Ellis

While most of the early attention is focusing on US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s (D-Honolulu) challenge to Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, the general election now comes into focus.  State House Minority Leader Andria Tupola (R-Wai’anae Coast) announced that she will run for Governor, giving the GOP a credible standard bearer in the general election.  Democrats are favor to hold the position, but the strong incumbent primary challenge creates some uncertainty.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is running for Governor, but says she will not resign from the House.  In 2010, then-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Honolulu) left his 1st District seat mid-term to avoid the long trips back and forth to Washington.  Remaining in the state, he was able to invigorate his fledgling gubernatorial campaign and would eventually win the statewide election.  But, under Hawaii’s special election law that places all candidates on one ballot for a sole electoral contest, Republican Charles Djou picked up the seat for the remainder of the congressional term.  Ms. Hanabusa then defeated him in the subsequent 2010 regular election.  The Congresswoman serving the full term will keep the House seat in the Democratic column, but whether her prolonged absences from the far away state will weaken her Democratic primary challenge against Gov. David Ige remains to be seen.

--Jim Ellis

Over the holiday weekend, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) announced that she will challenge Gov. David Ige in next year’s Democratic primary.  Gov. Ige scored a huge primary win in 2014, defeating Gov. Neil Abercrombie with 67% of the vote, and now Rep. Hanabusa will attempt to repeat history next year.  Doing so would be even more extraordinary in Hawaii, before an electorate that rarely defeats incumbents.  Prior to unseating Gov. Abercrombie, Mr. Ige served for 30 years in the Hawaii state legislature. 
 
Ms. Hanabusa was elected to the House in 2010, defeating short-term GOP incumbent Charles Djou.  The latter won a crowded jungle special election when the Democratic candidates split a majority of the vote.  The Congresswoman served two terms in the House before running unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2014, losing to appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D).  Mr. Schatz replaced the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) who served in the Senate for just short of 50 years, passing away before completing his ninth term.  She returned to the House when her successor, Rep. Mark Takai (D-Aiea), passed away from pancreatic cancer before completing his first term.  With Rep. Hanabusa again departing the 1st District seat, we can again expect a hotly contested Democratic primary with a potentially active general election.

--Jim Ellis

Saying he expects another Republican gubernatorial candidate to soon emerge, state Rep. Bob McDermott (R-Ewa Beach) ended his gubernatorial effort yesterday.  The individual to which he refers may be state House Minority Leader Andria Tupola (R-Kalaeloa), who has been considering the race.   Gov. David Ige (D) is seeking re-election, but may receive a strong Democratic primary challenge from US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) and/or Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho.

--Jim Ellis