Democrat Ed Case represented Hawaii’s 2nd District for two terms, winning his first election in 2002 and leaving Congress at the beginning of 2007.  He has since twice run for US Senate, once for Governor, and once in the most recent special election in the 1st District.  As the candidate filing deadline expired on Tuesday, Mr. Case again has become a candidate.  At the last minute, he filed for the open 1st Congressional District.  He joins Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, state Reps. Beth Fukumoto, and Kaniela Ing, and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin in the August 11th Democratic primary.  

--Jim Ellis

The Honolulu-anchored 1st Congressional District is again open as Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is once more engaged in a statewide Democratic primary challenge, this time opposite Gov. David Ige.  The Merriman River Group, polling for the Honolulu Civil Beat online news and political newsletter, (5/3-5; 967 HI statewide registered voters; 321 HI-1 likely Democratic primary voters), finds state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim leading the all-important Democratic primary, 26-19% over new Lt. Gov. Doug Chin.  Party-switching state Rep. Beth Fukumoto (D-Mililani) is in third place with 11%.  No other candidate reaches double-digits.  The eventual Democratic nominee wins the seat in November.  The Hawaii primary is August 11th.

--Jim Ellis

An early May Merriman River Group survey was just released (5/3-5; 707 HI likely Democratic primary voters), and while this data still finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading incumbent Gov. David Ige (D) for the August 11th Democratic primary election, the margin is much closer.  According to Merriman, Rep. Hanabusa’s lead is 37-31%.  In March, a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategies survey found her substantially outpacing the Governor, 47-27%.  Back in 2014, then-state Sen. Ige blasted Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) out of office with a 66-31% Democratic primary win.  Rep. Hanabusa hopes to continue the Democratic voter streak of denying re-nomination to their incumbent Governors.

--Jim Ellis

Current Gov. David Ige (D) made national political news in 2014 when he trounced incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie, 66-31% in the Democratic primary, but things have gone badly for him since that time.  Last week we reported upon a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey that found US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) leading him for the August 11th Hawaii Democratic primary, 47-27%. 
 
Now, a group of key Democratic state legislative leaders have jointly endorsed Rep. Hanabusa.  State Senate President Ron Kouchi (D-Kauai), state House Speaker Scott Saiki (D-Honolulu), Senate Ways & Means Committee chairman Donovan Dela Cruz (D-Honolulu), and House Finance Committee chair Sylvia Luke (D-Makiki) all publicly agreed to join the Hanabusa campaign finance team.

--Jim Ellis

Four years ago, then-state Sen. David Ige (D) rocked Hawaii politics with his 66-31% rout of sitting Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the 2014 Democratic primary.  Now, the tables appear to be turning.  A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (3/13-18; 800 HI voters; 498 HI likely Democratic primary voters) finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) crushing Gov. Ige, 47-27%, if the August 11th primary election were held today.  A series of mis-steps, including the highly publicized false alarm that the state was under an imminent nuclear attack, has hampered the Governor’s job approval rating.

--Jim Ellis

Former one-term US Rep. Charles Djou (R-Honolulu) was one of the individuals looking to enter the open 1st Congressional District race now that incumbent Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is challenging Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary.  In an announcement yesterday, Mr. Djou said he will not become a congressional candidate in 2018, preferring to launch another run to become Mayor of Honolulu in the 2020 election.
 
Democrats are already fielding four candidates, including Lt. Gov. Doug Chin, state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Honolulu), state Senator and former congressional candidate Donna Mercado Kim (D-Aiea), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin.  Republicans have yet to field a candidate.  At this point, Democrats must be rated heavy favorites to retain the seat.

--Jim Ellis

Several weeks ago, Attorney General Doug Chin announced that he would enter the open 1st District Democratic primary and that he would resign his appointed position in March.  Now, he accepts the Lt. Governor’s appointment since incumbent Shan Tsutsui (D) resigned to take a position in the private sector.  But, Mr. Chin will only serve on an interim basis and continue in his campaign for Congress.  Gov. David Ige (D) first offered the Lt. Governor’s office to both state Senate President Ron Kouchi (D), and then state House Speaker Scott Saiki (D) but each declined to accept. 
 
Mr. Chin faces state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D-Aiea), state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Kihei), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin in the party primary.  Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is vacating the congressional seat to challenge Gov. Ige in the statewide Democratic primary.  The Democratic congressional nominee will become the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

As expected, Attorney General Doug Chin (D) officially became a congressional candidate in the open 1st District earlier this week.  Mr. Chin made national headlines when he sued the Trump Administration over the travel ban Executive Order that the President issued early in his tenure.  Mr. Chin has never run for elective office, however, as the AG is an appointed position in Hawaii.  He also served as Honolulu’s City Manager, and as a prosecuting attorney.  Currently in the Democratic primary are state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim (D-Moanalua), state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D-Kihei), and Honolulu City Councilman Ernie Martin.  Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is leaving the seat to challenge Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary.

--Jim Ellis

Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho (D) had been talking about launching a primary challenge to Gov. David Ige.  With US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa already in the race, however, the path for Carvalho to upset them both becomes very narrow.  Considering the new political landscape, Mr. Carvalho yesterday announced that he will run for Lt. Governor, instead.  Incumbent Shan Tsutsui (D) has already announced he is not seeking re-election.  But, Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa and three state Senators are already in the Democratic primary, thereby yielding a highly competitive nomination contest. 

--Jim Ellis

While most of the early attention is focusing on US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s (D-Honolulu) challenge to Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, the general election now comes into focus.  State House Minority Leader Andria Tupola (R-Wai’anae Coast) announced that she will run for Governor, giving the GOP a credible standard bearer in the general election.  Democrats are favor to hold the position, but the strong incumbent primary challenge creates some uncertainty.

--Jim Ellis