In the week that Gov. Rick Scott (R) made his long-awaited Senate announcement, Public Policy Polling (4/10-11; 611 FL registered voters), surveying for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine, finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading the Governor by a 50-44% margin.  Sen. Nelson scores a 47:37% positive favorability score, while Gov. Scott drops to 47:46%.  To counter the PPP data, the New Republican PAC, an outside entity supporting Gov. Scott, claims that its internal McLaughlin & Associates poll (dates and sample size not available) finds the Governor clinging to a one point, 47-46% edge.  We can expect this race to seesaw all the way to Election Day.

--Jim Ellis

Since gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine (D) commissioned the aforementioned Public Policy Polling survey (see FL-Senate above), it naturally concentrated on the open Florida Governor’s race.  According to the Democratic primary data, Mr. Levine has expanded his lead over former Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), to 29-21% with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King trailing with only single-digit support.  In general election match-ups, pairings featuring Levine and Graham top Republicans Adam Putnam, the state Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman, and Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm City/Daytona Beach) in all scenarios by one to five points.
 
The conclusions for both the Governor and Senate race is that both elections are too close to call, and we are headed for another typically close Florida election season in 2018.

--Jim Ellis

On the heels of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) announcing that he is not seeking re-election to Congress, four-term Florida Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) also made public his plans to retire from elective politics.  He becomes the 62nd House member to retire, resign, or seek a different office.
 
Florida’s 15th District lies due east of Tampa, traveling along the Interstate 4 corridor from suburban Brandon to the anchor city of Lakeland.  The district then turns north and moves almost to Lake Apopka near Orlando.  Mr. Ross succeeded Republican Adam Putnam who was elected Agriculture Commissioner in 2010, and is now a major candidate for Governor.  The 15th plays as a reliably Republican district.  President Trump carried the seat by 10 points in his presidential election, 53-43%.  Both Mitt Romney and John McCain registered 52-47% spreads.  Rep. Ross’ surprise retirement means it will be a few days before we see potential candidates coming forward.

--Jim Ellis

Florida’s new election law that requires most office holders to resign their current post in order to seek another just changed South Florida politics.  Two very significant Democratic candidates decided to drop their congressional bids.  State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D-Miami), who at least for a time was viewed as the front-runner, says he will remain in the state Senate because his party has an opportunity of capturing the majority.  Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell also decided to discontinue his congressional effort in favor of retaining his current position.
 
With candidate filing coming early next month (May 4th) in preparation for the August 28th primary, seven active Democrats remain in the field.  The developments certainly help former Health & Human Services Secretary and University of Miami president Donna Shalala in her bid to capture the party nomination.  Republican leaders, who currently see eleven individuals expressing interest in running, appear to be looking toward television news anchor Maria Elvira Salazar.  Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) is retiring after serving all or part of 15 terms.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) released an internal North Star Opinion Research poll (3/12-15; 600 FL likely Republican primary voters) that stakes the Atlantic Coast Congressman to a 21-19% lead over Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam in their open race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  Creating a hypothetical one-on-one primary between DeSantis and Putnam, the poll found the Congressman leading 28-23%.  Twelve Republicans have announced their candidacies, but only state House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R-Land O’Lakes) is a formidable opponent to Messrs. DeSantis and Putnam. 
 
With a May 30th candidate filing deadline, an August 28th primary, and the leading Republican candidates virtually tied, this race is weeks, if not months, away from becoming defined.  Gov. Rick Scott (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but is likely to announce his US Senate challenge to incumbent Bill Nelson (D) on April 9th.

--Jim Ellis

Law professor Tim Canova made a big splash in 2016 with his primary challenge to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston), while she was the sitting Democratic National Committee chair.  Mr. Canova attracted just under $4 million in financial support, and an endorsement from presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, but lost the party primary 43-57%.  He announced that he would seek a re-match this year.  With little in the way of 2018 support developing for him, and Sen. Sanders staying away from the re-match, Mr. Canova yesterday announced he is exiting the Democratic primary and will run as an Independent in the general election.   It is now clearly evident that Rep. Wasserman Schultz is a cinch for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

Public Policy Polling, surveying for an undisclosed labor organization (3/23-25; 613 FL likely Democratic primary voters) tested the upcoming open gubernatorial campaign.  According to their results, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, who has already been advertising on electronic media, has taken the lead over former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), 22-19%.  Trailing well behind is Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at 8%, and businessman Chris King with 5% support.  Much time remains in this nomination campaign, however.  The Florida state primary is not until August 28th. 

--Jim Ellis

It appears that Gov. Rick Scott (R) will soon become an official Senate candidate, a move that has been anticipated for more than a year.  Yesterday, the Governor scheduled what he calls “a major announcement” for April 9th.  The Governor has yet to commit to challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D), but his vast wealth and universal name identification provides him the luxury of skipping the preliminary campaign organizational period.  Though not a Senate candidate, an unconnected Super PAC has been advertising heavily throughout Florida pushing a Scott-backed issue agenda and extolling the Governor’s strong role in implementing positive change during his tenure in office.  
 
Polling has consistently shown that a Nelson-Scott Senate race would be a toss-up, an unsurprising result in politically swing Florida.

--Jim Ellis