The Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) became even more serious yesterday when the state AFL-CIO announced it support of the Congressman’s opponent, former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown.  In 2016, Mr. Lawson unseated then-Rep. Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) after both the district was re-drawn to include most of the city of Tallahassee and Rep. Brown had been indicted on federal charges for which she would later be convicted. 
 
Neither man has raised much money.  The Congressman had obtained just over $319,000 through the end of March, while Mr. Brown had attracted approximately $167,000 in financial support.  The new financial disclosure reports, which will cover through the period ending June 30th, will reveal more current information.  The Florida primary is August 28th.

--Jim Ellis

With heavy advertising already beginning for the Florida general election even though the US Senate primary won’t occur until August 28th, a new poll again shows Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) forging a small lead over veteran US Sen. Bill Nelson (D).  Earlier in the week, we reported on a Morning Consult survey that posted the Governor to a slim 40-39% edge.  Now, Cherry Communications, polling for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (5/25-6/4; 605 FL likely voters), released their latest results.  Cherry confirms a small Scott lead, projecting him to a 48-45% advantage.  Both results are within the polling margin of error.  The Florida Senate race promises to attract national attention all the way to Election Day.

--JIm Ellis

A new SEA Polling & Strategic Design survey (6/3-7; 600 FL registered Democratic voters) finds Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine expanding his Democratic primary lead to 32-16-11-6-4% over former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-Tallahassee), businessman Chris King, and billionaire Jeff Greene, who just entered the race last week.
 
The Florida primary is not until August 28th, so this race has a much longer time to develop.  Mayor Levine has launched several extensive media buys, which are likely responsible, at least to a degree, for his uptick in polling support detected over the past few weeks.

--Jim Ellis

Sunshine State Democratic gubernatorial candidate Philip Levine (D), the Mayor of Miami Beach, has put some separation between he and the rest of the primary gubernatorial campaign according to a new Public Policy Polling survey (5/21-22; 583 FL likely Democratic primary voters).  The data projects Mayor Levine to be holding a 30-20-12-6% advantage over former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-Tallahassee), and businessman Chris King, respectively.  This is the largest recorded lead for any of the candidates since the field formed earlier in the year and polling began. 
 
The Florida primary is August 28th.  Gov. Rick Scott (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.   The Republican primary appears to be breaking into a one-on-one race between Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam and US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R- Palm Coast/Daytona Beach).  

--Jim Ellis

Polling for the open Republican gubernatorial primary has consistently shown Agriculture Commissioner and former US Rep. Adam Putnam and Congressman Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/ Daytona Beach) locked in a virtual dead heat and, like for their Democratic counterparts, most surveys find all the candidates below 20% in definitive support.  The third presumed significant candidate, state House Speaker Richard Corcoran (R-Land O’ Lakes), was expected to begin a major push forward but has now changed course.  Consistently failing to even reach high single-digits in polling, Mr. Corcoran has decided not to run, and this week instead endorsed Mr. Putnam. 

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday’s political news wasn’t exclusively about the multi-state primary.  A new Florida Atlantic University survey (5/4-7; 1,000 Florida registered voters via online sampling) finds Gov. Rick Scott (R), who has been advertising heavily since announcing for the Senate in early April, leads incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D), 44-40% according to the poll results.  Among likely voters within the large polling segment, however, the two men are tied at 45% apiece.  We can expect this race to carry a toss-up rating all the way to Election Day.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Florida Atlantic University poll (see Florida Senate above) finds both the open Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries to be virtual ties with all candidates securing less than 20% support.  For the Democrats, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine leads the field with just 16% respondent preference, followed by former US Rep. Gwen Graham at 15%, businessman Chris King taking 10%, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum following with just 6% support.  On the Republican side, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) has an identical 16-15% edge over Agriculture Commissioner and former US Rep. Adam Putnam. 

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Mario Diaz Balart (R-Miami) has had little to worry about since he switched districts when his brother, former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R), retired.   Originally, Mario Diaz-Balart represented a politically marginal South Florida district but moved into his brother’s safely Republican seat when it became open in the 2010 election.
 
Late last week as candidate filing closed on Friday, former state Judge Mary Barzee Flores (D), who had been competing in the crowded open seat Democratic primary for the adjacent District 27, decided to switch districts and challenge Rep. Diaz-Balart.  The move assures that she will advance into the general election, a prospect that was unlikely in the crowded neighboring district where former Health & Human Services Secretary and ex-University of Miami president Donna Shalala seems to have developed a Democratic primary advantage.  Rep. Diaz-Balart will be heavily favored for re-election, but he can count on facing the first relatively competitive campaign he’s seen since election year 2008. 

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, we reported that former Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) was considering mounting a political comeback in the newly open 15th District from which Republican Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) is retiring.  Now Mr. Grayson has reversed course and announced that he will file a Democratic primary challenge to 9th District Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) in the seat that he (Grayson) previously represented for two terms. 
 
Grayson says he’s not so much running against Soto but is doing so to re-claim his old seat.  He already is drawing an ideological contrast, claiming to be “disturbed” that freshman Soto, while a member of the Florida state Senate, received an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association.  We can expect a raucous primary campaign to conclude on August 28th.

--Jim Ellis

Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando), who was first elected to the House in 2008 but defeated two years later only to return from a new post-reapportionment district, is looking to run in what would be his third different district.  Elected twice from the new 9th District, Mr. Grayson ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2016.  He announced plans to challenge Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) in the safely Republican 11th District (Webster unseated Grayson in 2010), but most people believed he would return to the 9th District to launch a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). 
 
Now, in yet another surprise move, Mr. Grayson confirmed that he is considering the open Lakeland area congressional race, possibly entering the campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland).  One way or another, expect to see Alan Grayson again running for Congress in 2018.

--Jim Ellis