The Golden State’s 48th Congressional District primary election is still unresolved as ballots from the June 5th vote are still being counted.  Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa) is safe in first place with 30% against 15 opponents.  But, the identity of Mr. Rohrabacher’s general election opponent is still unknown.  The latest count finds biomedical company CEO Hans Keirstead (D) holding a small 87-vote lead over businessman Harley Rouda (D).  It is unclear when this race will finally be decided.  On election night Mr. Rouda held a small edge, but Mr. Keirstead surpassed him when the post-election votes began to be counted. 
 
The California election authorities deem mail votes to be valid if they are postmarked on June 5th and received at the respective county offices by midnight last Friday.  

--Jim Ellis

Another race that appeared close enough to turn around when the post-votes are all counted was the 49th District campaign.  With Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista) retiring, the open seat contest to replace him also drew 16 candidates.  The clear first place finisher was Republican Diane Harkey, who captured 25.6% of the vote.  The individual now definitively advancing with her into the general election is attorney Mike Levin (D) who raised well over $1.7 million.  It has become clear that Mr. Levin’s two full percentage point advantage over his closest competitor, former State Department official Sara Jacobs (D), will hold and he will clinch second place. 
 
Since this is the only district in the targeted seven Republican seats where Democratic turnout surpassed that of their partisan counterparts, this campaign should become a stronger national Democratic conversion priority.

--Jim Ellis

According to a new poll from the University of California at Berkeley and YouGov (5/12-24; 1,113 CA adult citizens), with a sample that skews decidedly to the left, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is again projected to easily secure first place for Tuesday’s jungle primary.  Now, however, a Republican candidate appears favored to secure second place, which pleases the state GOP leadership and would give Mr. Newsom an easy general election run. 
 
Mr. Newsom claims 30% support from the polling respondents.  Businessman John Cox, a former presidential and Illinois US Senate candidate, is second with 14%, followed closely by Republican state Assemblyman Travis Allen, at 12%.  State Treasurer John Chiang (D) has 9%, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), often believed to be the toughest general election opponent for Newsom, places fifth with only 8% support.
 
--Jim Ellis

It appears Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) will do battle in the general election according to a pair of newly published political polls.  Survey USA tested the pre-primary California electorate (5/21-24; 678 CA likely primary voters) and found Sen. Feinstein leading the pack of 32 jungle primary candidates with 36% preference.  Sen. de Leon was a distant second with 11%, but the only other contender to reach double-digits. 
 
Emerson College simultaneously surveyed the state (5/21-24; 600 CA registered voters).  They find Sen. Feinstein also in the high 30s (38%), but Sen. de Leon barely in second place with 6.1% support, just ahead of attorney Pat Harris’ (D) 6.0%.  The California primary is June 5th.  With all contenders placed on the same ballot, irrespective of political party preference, the top two finishers will advance to the general election.

--Jim Ellis

The aforementioned Survey USA and Emerson College polls (see California Senate above) also tested the impending open Governor’s campaign.  In both polls, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) retains the lead, as he has in every survey throughout the year.  S-USA sees him with 33% jungle primary support, Emerson: 24%.  In second place is Republican attorney and former presidential and Illinois Senate candidate John Cox with 16 and 17%, respectively, in the two polls. 
 
It appears former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) may have a hard time forcing a double-Democratic general election.  He gets only 8% in the latest S-USA poll, but finds 12% from Emerson College.  St. Treasurer John Chiang (D), another significant candidate, pulls ahead of Villaraigosa in the S-USA survey, but behind him in Emerson.  Both find Mr. Chiang taking 10% of the vote.  The question soon to be answered in the June 5th primary is whether or not the Republicans will be able to secure any statewide general election ballot positions.

--Jim Ellis

Embattled California Rep. Duncan D. Hunter (R-Alpine), who is reportedly under FBI investigation for campaign finance violations, still fares well in a new Survey USA poll conducted for the San Diego Union Tribune and local Channel 10 News.  According to the S-USA results (5/15-20; 567 CA-50 likely June 5th jungle primary voters), Rep. Hunter would lead the upcoming primary vote with 43% support.  Placing second with just 10% support is Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar.  The 2016 Democratic candidate who opposed Mr. Hunter, Patrick Malloy, is next with 7%, and El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells (R) follows at 6% support.  In California, the top two finishers in the primary election, regardless of percentage earned or party affiliation, advance into the general election.

--Jim Ellis

The Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley (4/16-22; 1,738 CA likely voters responding to an online survey) tested the California electorate and found a surprising result.  While Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) only captured 28% support when all 32 qualified candidates were listed on the survey questionnaire, as they will be on the official ballot, movement occurred from at least one down ballot candidate.
 
The second place finisher was former state Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) as expected, but at only 11%.  The individual in third place, however, coming from the lower tier of candidates and trailing de Leon by just one percentage point, is Republican James Bradley who is running on an “America First” platform and against the sanctuary cities concept.  This poll’s online nature suggests a very high error factor.   Considering that Bradley has little money in this most expensive of political states, it remains highly probable that the jungle primary sends Sen. Feinstein and state Sen. de Leon to the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Little known Probolsky Research (data released 4/23; 900 CA registered voters) finds Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) falling into a closer June 5th jungle primary vote with former state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles).  The survey shows Sen. Feinstein commanding only a 38-27% lead over de Leon within the multi-candidate field. 
 
A potential inaccuracy occurs, however, among Republican voters who appear headed to de Leon in stronger numbers than Sen. Feinstein.  While it is possible that this is a function of the veteran Senator being negatively perceived among voters in the opposite party, it is strange to see them going in higher numbers for the more liberal candidate.  Additionally, for a five-term incumbent Senator to be only scoring 38% preference in an open primary poll also raises accuracy questions.  Previous polling has posted Sen. Feinstein to leads over de Leon of at least 26 percentage points.

--Jim Ellis

J. Wallin Opinion Research and Tulchin Research teamed up to conduct a new survey of the California electorate (3/30-4/4; 800 CA likely voters), which again finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading the pack of candidates just as he consistently has over the course of the last year.  The most significant new finding is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa who has fallen to only 7% support.  Republican businessman John Cox, a former presidential and Illinois US Senate candidate, is second with 16% and has a chance of advancing through the June 5th jungle primary.  State Treasurer John Chiang (D) and state Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) record 9%, apiece.  The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the November 6th general election.
 
In the last year, 16 polls have been released for this race, and Mr. Newsom has led them all, falling into a range between 22 and 31%.  He is clearly the favorite to finish first in June, and is likely headed to victory in November.

--Jim Ellis

Early last week, Republican actress Stacy Dash dropped her long shot bid to unseat freshman Rep. Nanette Barragan (D-San Pedro), and now a major opponent has followed suit.  Compton Mayor Aja Brown (D), who had also announced her candidacy and appeared as a serious competitor, also withdrew from the race and did so Friday.   Ms. Brown stated that she has just become pregnant, and therefore will not be continuing her race for the House.  Though both Dash and Brown will remain on the June 5th primary ballot, and one will likely advance to the general election under California’s jungle primary system, we can count on Rep. Barragan to easily defend her seat.

--Jim Ellis