The Utah Republican Party nominating convention was held over the weekend, and former presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R), who is viewed to be a lock to replace retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) in November, failed to place first among delegates and is now headed to a June 26th Republican primary election with state Rep. Mike Kennedy, a Lindon physician.  The vote was 51-49% in Dr. Kennedy’s favor after multiple rounds of voting eliminated ten others, but a candidate must obtain 60% delegate support to win the nomination outright. 
 
Despite his convention performance, which actually was expected, Mr. Romney remains the heavy favorite to win the party primary, and the general election.  Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), who was honored at the state convention, is retiring after 42 years of service.

--Jim Ellis

Also, at the Utah Republican Party nominating convention, freshman Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), who won the 2017 special election to succeed resigned Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), failed to win re-nomination outright.  Needing 60% to avoid a primary, Mr. Curtis received 59% of the delegate vote.  In the special election, Rep. Curtis, then the Mayor of Provo, bypassed the party district nominating convention and qualified for the ballot via petition.
 
For the special election, as in voting on Saturday, 3rd District delegates gave significant support to former state Rep. Chris Herrod.  Though winning the special convention vote, he managed to just barely gain enough support this time to force Rep. Curtis into an election.  The Congressman is again favored to win the succeeding primary, which is tantamount to re-election in the fall.

--Jim Ellis

It had been rumored for months that GOP mega-donor Foster Friess, founder of the Delaware-based Brandywine mutual fund family, would initiate a Republican primary challenge to Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso.  While Mr. Friess never denied considering running for the Senate, even while referring to Sen. Barrasso as one of his “heroes”, it didn’t appear that he was making any discernible moves to launch a campaign.  On Friday, however, Mr. Friess announced that he will challenge the Senator in the August 21st Republican primary.  Mr. Friess, now a long-time resident of Wyoming, will have little trouble amassing campaign resources as he can easily self-fund a major campaign.  It is doubtful that he can deny Sen. Barrasso re-nomination, but Mr. Friess can certainly make the primary campaign an expensive one.

--Jim Ellis

First District Republican delegates gathered in convention this weekend in Mankato to endorse a congressional nominee.  In Minnesota, though the conventions don’t have the power to directly nominate candidates, contenders usually abide by the delegate vote and don’t force primaries.  In this instance, the delegates again chose businessman Jim Hagedorn as the endorsed candidate.  Mr. Hagedorn barely lost the 2016 general election to Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) by just half a percentage point.  Mr. Walz is now running for Governor, so the open 1st District will feature a hot general election campaign.  State Sen. Carla Nelson (R-Rochester), who lost the convention endorsement to Hagedorn on Saturday, says she will force an August 14th primary election.
 
The Democrats simultaneously met in convention and did so in Le Sueur; a small town located 25 miles north of Mankato on the way to the Twin Cities.  There, the party delegates turned to former US Defense Department official Dan Feehan.  It appears no primary will be forced in this race, so it becomes apparent that Mr. Feehan will become the party nominee attempting to succeed Mr. Walz.  A general election between Messrs. Hagedorn and Feehan is rated as a toss-up.

--Jim Ellis

It is clear local Montgomery County Democratic politics is moving well beyond former US Rep. Joe Hoeffel.  The ex-Congressman served in the House for three terms, from 1999-2005.  He was the Democratic US Senate nominee in 2004, losing to then-incumbent Arlen Specter (R), 53-42%.  Now, he is attempting a political comeback in the new open 4th CD, but finds rough going.  Raising only $20,000 in the last reporting period, Mr. Hoeffel is lagging well behind state Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Jenkintown). 
 
Already endorsing Ms. Dean is former Governor and Democratic National Committee chairman Ed Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, ex-Montgomery County US Rep. Allyson Schwartz, four top unions, and 12 current local Montgomery County elected officials.  Ironically, Ms. Dean’s first political experience came as a teenager when she volunteered for a state Representative’s re-election effort…a state legislator named Joe Hoeffel.

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, former state Sen. Lynda Moss (D) announced she is ending her campaign for the state’s at-large congressional district.  Ms. Moss had raised only $32,000 for the campaign with a paltry $38,000 cash-on-hand.  She admitted that poor fundraising was the main reason behind her departure.  Democrats still have plenty of candidates, however. 
 
Three active contenders are all raising credible money.  Non-profit environmental organization executive Grant Kier leads the group of challengers with $433,000 in his campaign account.  Close behind in the money race is attorney John Heenan with $386,000 in political assets.  Former state Rep. Kathleen Williams lags behind with just $140,000.  Incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman), who was elected in a special election last May, has just under $1 million ($947,000) in the bank.  The freshman Representative is favored for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

J. Wallin Opinion Research and Tulchin Research teamed up to conduct a new survey of the California electorate (3/30-4/4; 800 CA likely voters), which again finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading the pack of candidates just as he consistently has over the course of the last year.  The most significant new finding is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa who has fallen to only 7% support.  Republican businessman John Cox, a former presidential and Illinois US Senate candidate, is second with 16% and has a chance of advancing through the June 5th jungle primary.  State Treasurer John Chiang (D) and state Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) record 9%, apiece.  The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the November 6th general election.
 
In the last year, 16 polls have been released for this race, and Mr. Newsom has led them all, falling into a range between 22 and 31%.  He is clearly the favorite to finish first in June, and is likely headed to victory in November.

--Jim Ellis

There are already 16 announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates vying for the opportunity to challenge incumbent Scott Walker (R) in November, but there could be at least one more major entry before the June 1st candidate filing deadline. 
 
Four-term Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D), who also served ten years in Congress before entering city government, may again run for Governor.  He has already lost twice to Mr. Walker, after failing to capture the party nomination in 2002.  Looking at the huge field, Mr. Barrett is figuring his statewide name identification and solid base in the city of Milwaukee would be enough to swipe the nomination with a low vote total.  The current leader appears to be two-term Wisconsin State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.   Early special and odd-numbered election returns suggest that Democrats could fare well in the state next year, making Gov. Walker more vulnerable and the Democratic nomination worth having.

--Jim Ellis

A day after Magellan Strategies released a survey that showed Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) expanding her previous lead in the Republican Senate primary, OH Predictive Insights for ABC15 in Phoenix finds a completely different take.  Their poll (4/10-11; 600 AZ 600 likely voters; 302 AZ likely Republican primary voters) shows ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who was in last place in the Magellan survey and all others previously commissioned, to be leading Rep. McSally and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 36-27-22%.  Looking at the sample size of just 302 Republican voters from the entire state suggests the error factor is extremely high for this study, and even more questionable when seeing that no other survey result projects Ms. Ward with the overall lead. 
 
In the general election, where the sample size of 600 should yield more accurate information, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), the consensus presumed Democratic nominee, leads all three Republicans.  The closest match up comes with Rep. McSally, where the three-term Democratic Congresswoman leads 48-42%. 

--Jim Ellis

Also seeing the at-large US House candidate list (see North Dakota Senate above), it appears certain that state Senator and former North Dakota Republican Party chairman Kelly Armstrong will face former state Senate Minority Leader Mac Schneider in the general election.  Mr. Schneider is officially unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and Sen. Armstrong faces only two minor GOP candidates.  State party convention delegate endorsements earlier this month gave the pair the inside track to a November ballot position, and such is being fulfilled.

--Jim Ellis