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Lancaster, PA based Franklin & Marshall College just released their new survey of the Pennsylvania statewide races (6/4-10; 472 PA registered voters; 224 Democrats, 185 Republicans, 63 Independents) and Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), seeking his third term since his original election in 2006, leads Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton) by a 44-27% count.  This is similar to the 43-25% projection derived from their March survey.  Sen. Casey’s combined personal favorability is 44:23% positive to negative.

--Jim Ellis

The Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) became even more serious yesterday when the state AFL-CIO announced it support of the Congressman’s opponent, former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown.  In 2016, Mr. Lawson unseated then-Rep. Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) after both the district was re-drawn to include most of the city of Tallahassee and Rep. Brown had been indicted on federal charges for which she would later be convicted. 
 
Neither man has raised much money.  The Congressman had obtained just over $319,000 through the end of March, while Mr. Brown had attracted approximately $167,000 in financial support.  The new financial disclosure reports, which will cover through the period ending June 30th, will reveal more current information.  The Florida primary is August 28th.

--Jim Ellis

Gov. Henry McMaster (R) was forced into a two-week run-off campaign because his opponents held him under 50% support in Tuesday’s primary.  Yesterday, two of his challengers, former Haley Administration cabinet official Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant, both endorsed the second-place finisher John Warren, a Greenville mortgage company executive and former Iraq War veteran.  The endorsements were of little surprise because both individuals were also challenging the new incumbent Governor.  Mr. McMaster became Governor when then-incumbent Nikki Haley (R) resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations.   He was elected as Lt. Governor in 2014 with 59% of the vote.

--Jim Ellis

As reported above (see Pennsylvania Senate) Franklin & Marshall College also asked respondents questions about the gubernatorial race in their new statewide poll.  Similar to the Senate responses, Gov. Tom Wolf (D) leads former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) 48-29%.  In March, Mr. Wolf led 38-21%, meaning both candidates have gained support.  But, the March polling segment was significantly smaller than in the current poll.  Gov. Wolf’s combined personal favorability registered 49:33% positive to negative.

--Jim Ellis

With heavy advertising already beginning for the Florida general election even though the US Senate primary won’t occur until August 28th, a new poll again shows Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) forging a small lead over veteran US Sen. Bill Nelson (D).  Earlier in the week, we reported on a Morning Consult survey that posted the Governor to a slim 40-39% edge.  Now, Cherry Communications, polling for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (5/25-6/4; 605 FL likely voters), released their latest results.  Cherry confirms a small Scott lead, projecting him to a 48-45% advantage.  Both results are within the polling margin of error.  The Florida Senate race promises to attract national attention all the way to Election Day.

--JIm Ellis

Many incumbent House members are facing primary opponents this year, but none have Kansas Rep. Ron Estes’ (R-Wichita) problem.  Mr. Estes’ lone Republican nomination foe actually shares his name.  To mitigate the confusion, election authorities announced this week that they are allowing Congressman Estes to appear on the August 7th primary ballot as “Rep. Ron Estes.”  The secondary Mr. Estes will be listed as “Ron M. Estes.”  

--Jim Ellis

The Colorado primary is June 26th and Strategies 360, polling for the Service Employees International Union (5/29-6/6; 500 CO general election voters; 387 CO likely Democratic primary voters with an over-sample of an additional 200 “Democratic-leaning midterm drop-off voters”), found US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) leading former state Treasurer and Colorado Democratic Party endorsed candidate Cary Kennedy, and ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston by a 34-23-12% margin.  The addition of low propensity Democratic general election voters, particularly for the primary ballot test, is curious, and makes the ending result somewhat suspect, however.
 
Strategies 360 also tested Rep. Polis and Ms. Kennedy against state Treasurer Walker Stephenson (R) in a proposed general election campaign.   The results are virtually identical.  Polis would lead Stapleton, 42-37%, while Kennedy’s edge would be 43-38%. 
 
Colorado is again using a 100% mail-vote system.  For the June 26th election, the Secretary of State reports already receiving 134,038 ballots.  The Centennial State has more than 1.2 million registered voters.

--Jim Ellis

New York’s Siena College again tested the impending Democratic gubernatorial primary between two-term incumbent Andrew Cuomo and actress Cynthia Nixon.  According to the Siena data, the Governor now leads his opponent, 61-26%, which is up a net four points from their previous 58-27% projection released in April.  The latest Siena scoring is much better for the Governor than the May Quinnipiac University poll, however.  In that latter survey, Gov. Cuomo’s lead was only 50-28% over Ms. Nixon.

--Jim Ellis

Just before last night’s election, a South Carolina political poll revealed that incumbent US Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford (R) was is serious re-nomination trouble, largely because of his public criticism of President Trump.  With the President as the focal point of the primary campaign, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerville) defeated Rep. Sanford in last night’s primary election, with a 50.5 to 46.6% recorded vote margin according to the latest count.  The percentage is important because exceeding the 50% mark means Ms. Arrington wins the nomination without advancing to a secondary June 26th run-off election.
 
Mr. Sanford becomes the second incumbent House member to be denied re-nomination in the 2018 primary season.   In early May, North Carolina Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) fell to Baptist former pastor Mark Harris in the 9th District Republican primary. 
 
In the Charleston area, Ms. Arrington is now expected to easily defeat Democratic primary winner Joe Cunningham in the November general election.

--Jim Ellis