Triton Research conducted a survey of Tennessee voters (12/12-18; 1,028 likely primary voters via interactive voice response systems), and finds Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) jumping out to a massive lead over former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County).  According to the data, the eight-term west Tennessee Congresswoman would lead Mr. Fincher by a whopping 58-11% among the self-identified Republican primary voters.  Much of the lead could be attributable to Ms. Blackburn’s strong name identification and positive image.  Her favorability ratio is 62:14% positive to negative with an 86% recognition factor, as compared to Mr. Fincher’s 16:8%, meaning only 24% of the statewide Republican electorate say they are familiar with him.
 
Now that businessman James Mackler has dropped out of the race, the Democratic primary is virtually assured for former two-term Gov. Phil Bredesen.  
 
--Jim Ellis

In a move that strengthens new Gov. Kay Ivey’s (R) position, state Agriculture & Industries Commissioner John McMillan (R), who had entered the Republican gubernatorial primary even before Gov. Robert Bentley (R) was forced to resign, has changed his 2018 electoral plans.  With Gov. Ivey running for a full term after ascending to the position from her Lt. Governor’s post after Mr. Bentley departed, Commissioner McMillan announced that he is withdrawing.  Instead, he will run for the open state Treasurer’s position.  The current Treasurer, Republican Young Boozer, is ineligible to seek a third term.  Prior to being elected Ag & Industries commissioner, Mr. McMillan served in the state House of Representatives and as a Baldwin County Commissioner.

--Jim Ellis

The Democratic field is poised to gain another entrant, which would increase the size of the field to an even dozen candidates.  Former Bangor Mayor Sean Faircloth (D) has semi-officially joined the campaign.  While he filed his papers to run with the Bureau of Elections, Mr. Faircloth says he still hasn’t made a final decision to actually become an active candidate.  The Democratic field features Attorney General Janet Mills, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, and two former state legislators, among others.

--Jim Ellis

The same Triton Research poll mentioned in the Tennessee Senate snip above also tested the open Governor’s race.  For the Republicans, US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) holds a 22-12% lead over former state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd.  State House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville) attracts 6%, just ahead of former state Sen. Mae Beavers (R-Mt. Juliet) and ex-Higher Education Commissioner Bill Lee who both garner 4% support.  The Democratic field was not tested in this survey.  Two-term Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is ineligible to run for re-election.

--Jim Ellis

Sen. Al Franken (D) has announced that he will leave office on January 2nd, after previously saying “sometime in January.”  Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D), Gov. Mark Dayton’s (D) pick to succeed Mr. Franken, will be sworn into the Senate on January 3rd.  She will serve until the 2018 special election is held (concurrently with the regular election cycle), and has already announced her candidacy to fill the balance of the current term.  The seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term in 2020.

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, we reported on a story that the Texas Republican Party was asking a court to intervene about whether Rep. Blake Farenthold’s (R-Corpus Christi) name should appear on the ballot since he has withdrawn from further 2018 political competition.  The Texas Secretary of State indicated he is placing the name on the ballot because Farenthold filed for re-election.  The court agreed with the Republican argument that the entire filing process had not been completed; hence, Mr. Farenthold’s name will not be present on the 2018 ballot.  Democrats immediately initiated a lawsuit against the judge’s ruling, but later in the day backed away from taking any further legal action.
 
--Jim Ellis

This week, Tulchin Research polling for Democratic congressional candidate Gil Cisneros who is challenging veteran Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, released their results data (11/12-19; 500 CA-39 likely voters).  Though the survey was conducted more than a month ago, the totals are just now becoming public.
 
Predictably, in a 39th District that is undergoing significant demographic and political change, Tulchin sees Mr. Royce holding only a 48-44% lead over Cisneros, apparently the only Democrat tested against the incumbent even though six are in the race. 

--Jim Ellis

Earlier in the year, Massachusetts Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville/Cambridge) drew a Democratic primary challenge from Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen, but that threat ended when the latter man hopped into the open 3rd District race.  Now, Rep. Capuano may face a new primary opponent.  According to a Politico publication story, Boston City Councilwoman Ayanna Pressley, who is elected citywide as one of four at-large members, is seriously considering challenging Mr. Capuano next year.  The Massachusetts candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 5th for the late September 18th state primary, so plenty of time remains for many political moves to occur.  

--Jim Ellis

Yesterday, we reported that the 94th House of Delegates District recount had awarded Democratic challenger Shelly Simonds a one-vote victory over incumbent Delegate David Yancey (R-Newport News).  The result would have given the Democrats a 50-50 tie in the state House.  Now, however, a three-judge panel reinstated a previously rejected vote in response to a Republican legal challenge, which means each candidate now records 11,608 votes.  The tie-breaking result, and likely the House majority, will be decided by drawing lots from a hat.  The State Board of Elections will schedule the procedure for a date in the near future.  The race may not be over regardless of who wins the draw, however.  The loser has the right to ask for another recount, and we can expect such to happen no matter who breaks this “tie.”

--Jim Ellis