After three polls released this week projected former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) regaining the lead over Democratic former US Attorney Doug Jones in their special US Senate campaign, JMC Analytics & Polling distributed their own numbers that confirm the latest results.  The new JMC data (11/27-28; 650 AL registered voters; 513 saying they will vote) finds Judge Moore topping Mr. Jones, 48-43%, with the four minor party and independent candidates receiving a combined 4 percent.   The remaining respondents report themselves as undecided.  The new results reverse the trends revealed in JMC’s 11/9-11 survey that found Jones to be ahead, 48-44%.   
 
The latest numbers might even be better for Moore.  The sample includes 56% female respondents, about five percentage points higher than the actual voting universe.  Among women, Mr. Jones has a 50-44% lead.  Judge Moore is way ahead among men, 54-37%. 

--Jim Ellis

Don Blankenship is the former CEO of Massey Energy who was personally cited for safety violations in the deaths of 29 employees in the 2010 Upper Big Branch mine explosion.  Mr. Blankenship was sentenced to a year in prison, but that notwithstanding, he has filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to join the US Senate Republican primary.  There, he will face Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and US Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington).  It is likely he is running for office to have his chance of telling his side of the tragedy and hopefully, from his perspective, improve his moribund public image.

--Jim Ellis

Democratic Party leaders had long believed that state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Cape May) would match up well in a race against veteran Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor City), but the former wouldn’t challenge the incumbent.  Now that Mr. LoBiondo has announced his retirement from Congress, Sen. Van Drew believes his time to run for federal office has arrived.  He announced for the seat yesterday, and will certainly be a viable candidate to attempt a Democratic conversion of this southern New Jersey district that has been in Republican hands since the beginning of 1995.  So far, no Republican has yet entered the race.  Sen. Van Drew was just re-elected to a fourth term in his current position, after serving three terms in the state Assembly.  This seat now becomes a top Democratic conversion opportunity and will be rated as a Toss-up.

--Jim Ellis

Bending to the sexual harassment allegations that have dogged him for the past week, Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), originally coming to office in 1964, announced that he will not seek re-election next year.  The development means that 38 seats will come open in the next election, including the PA-18 vacant seat that heads to special election on March 13th.   Michigan’s 13th District is safely Democratic, so the August 7th partisan primary will determine Mr. Conyers’ successor.  The Congressman will retire as the Dean of the House, and is the last member of either chamber who was originally elected in the 1960s.  He entered the House on the same night when Lyndon Johnson won his full term as President, just one year after John F. Kennedy was assassinated.

--Jim Ellis

Veteran Texas Rep. Joe Barton (R-Ennis), a former Energy & Commerce Committee chairman, has recently come under attack when a nude picture of the Congressman taken during a previous consensual relationship surfaced on Twitter.  Yesterday, Jake Ellzey, a member of the Texas Veterans Commission, filed as a Republican candidate to challenge Mr. Barton and others are expected to follow.  The Congressman appeared at a meeting of the Tarrant County Republican Party where reports suggested the consensus of attenders believe he should retire.  The Congressman has filed for re-election but could withdraw before the December 11th candidate filing deadline.  The 6th District is a safe Republican seat.  Mr. Barton has represented the district since 1985 and ranks ninth on the House seniority chart.    

--Jim Ellis

The Change Research firm released their third poll of the special Alabama Senate race (11/26-27; 1,868 AL self-identified registered voters) and it confirms the latest two publicly released surveys finding former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) regaining the lead over Democratic former US Attorney Doug Jones.  The CR spread gives Judge Moore a 49-44% edge, with the partisan divisions returning to more usual Alabama voting pattern. 
 
Partisanship also appears to largely determine if the individual respondent believes the sexual impropriety charges against Moore.  Republicans, particularly the hard core Moore supporters, say they don’t believe the accusations.  Now, 71% of Republicans say the charges are untrue, including a 2:78% Yes/No ratio among Moore primary voters.  By a virtual unanimous margin of 94:1%, Alabama Democrats believe the allegations, but they are badly outnumbered.
 
In what is clearly the best news for Moore coming from this poll, 88% of self-identified Trump voters now say they are “definitely planning to vote” up from 82% found in earlier CR polling.

--Jim Ellis

Though she hasn’t raised a particularly large sum of money ($271,000 at the September 30th filing deadline) and has already spent well over half of what she does have ($97,600 remaining cash-on-hand), challenger Marie Newman is drawing strong support from liberal organizations in her bid to deny Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs/Chicago suburbs) re-nomination in the March 20th Democratic primary. 
 
Yesterday, the marketing consultant who is making her first run for public office announced official endorsements from NARAL Pro-Choice America, MoveOn.org, the Human Rights Campaign, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Democracy for America.   It is clear that her challenge strategy will center on developing a clear contrast on social issue positions, but it remains to be seen if such an approach will work against a seven-term incumbent whose father represented the district for the previous 22 years.  During the same financial disclosure filing period (ending Sept. 30), Rep. Lipinski reported more than $1.5 million in his campaign account, giving him an obvious major financial advantage.

--Jim Ellis

As long expected, Lt. Gov. Brian Calley finally announced that he will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary, setting up a battle against Attorney General and former US Congressman Bill Schuette.  The Michigan Governor’s race is one of national importance since this is a critical redistricting state come 2021.  The Governor elected in 2018 will carry redistricting veto power.  Early polling and fundraising gives Attorney General Schuette a significant Republican primary lead.  Democrats feature former state House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer as their top candidate, to date.  Candidate filing does not end until April 24th for the August 7th primary, so both parties could see other potential candidates stepping forward.  Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

As was predicted in Monday’s posting, Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) confirmed that he will not seek re-election next year.  And, also as mentioned pertaining to the lateness of his retirement decision – the Illinois candidate filing deadline is December 4th – Gutierrez and the Chicago political machine leaders do already have a candidate emerging from the wings.  The Congressman confirmed this in his formal announcement, endorsing Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) as his successor, and saying he would not be retiring if Mr. Garcia did not agree to run for Congress.   Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (D), who is likely to attract national liberal organization support, is coming forward to challenge Garcia in the March 20th Democratic primary.  The winner of that plurality contest will claim the seat in the November 2018 general election.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Martha McSally’s (R-Tucson) camp just released their internal Arizona Senate Republican primary poll that places the Congresswoman slightly ahead of former state Senator Kelli Ward.  According the WPA Intelligence survey (11/15-16; 500 AZ likely GOP primary voters), Rep. McSally holds a slight 38-36% edge over Ms. Ward.  The Congresswoman has yet to announce that she is entering the open US Senate race, but the fact that her political people are releasing statewide data provides further evidence for the supposition that she will soon become a candidate.  Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is retiring after one term.  The eventual Republican nominee will likely face Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), who is quickly becoming the consensus Democratic candidate.

--Jim Ellis