State Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R-Brookfield), who had been considering entering next year’s US Senate race, indicated yesterday that he will not run.  This is another signal that Republicans are coalescing around businessman Kevin Nicholson, who the Club for Growth is reportedly raising millions of support dollars.  State Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) is expected to run, but Nicholson will clearly be the candidate with the strongest resources.  The eventual Republican nominee challenges first-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the general election.

--Jim Ellis

Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), a former gubernatorial candidate, had been considering launching another run for Alabama’s top statewide post.  Promising a decision before September, Rep. Byrne announced yesterday that he will seek re-election to a fourth term in the House next year meaning he won’t enter the crowded Republican gubernatorial primary.  The Congressman should face little in the way of competition next year.

--Jim Ellis

Anthony Gonzalez, a five-year National Football League veteran with the Indianapolis Colts who played his college ball at Ohio State University, joined the growing open seat Republican primary field in the north-central Ohio congressional district that four-term Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) is vacating to run for Governor.  In addition to Mr. Gonzalez, state House Majority Whip Tom Patton (R-Strongsville), state Rep. Christina Hagan (R-Alliance), and businessman Darrell Hartman are announced GOP candidates.  The 16th District is reliably Republican, but could become somewhat competitive in an open seat situation.  Physicist Aaron Godfrey is the lone announced Democratic candidate to date.

--Jim Ellis

Last year, Rep. Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) turned back an underfunded primary challenge from then-state Rep. Jenny Horne with a 56-44% victory margin.  Now, Rep. Sanford will face another primary opponent, this time one who appears to have more backing.  Stating her allegiance to President Trump, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerville) yesterday announced her congressional candidacy.   Immediately, state House Speaker Jay Lucas (R-Hartsville) and Majority Leader Gary Simrill (R-Rock Hill) endorsed Ms. Arrington thus providing an indication that she will run a serious political effort.  Clearly, based upon her announcement speech, support for the President will become a contrasting issue between she and Mr. Sanford.  The Congressman, who served two terms as Governor, has been highly critical of President Trump, particularly during the 2016 South Carolina presidential primary campaign, therefore sowing the seeds for an interesting potential race.


--Jim Ellis

Saying he expects another Republican gubernatorial candidate to soon emerge, state Rep. Bob McDermott (R-Ewa Beach) ended his gubernatorial effort yesterday.  The individual to which he refers may be state House Minority Leader Andria Tupola (R-Kalaeloa), who has been considering the race.   Gov. David Ige (D) is seeking re-election, but may receive a strong Democratic primary challenge from US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) and/or Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho.

--Jim Ellis

Last week, the survey research firms of JMC Analytics & Polling and Opinion Savvy produced data that gave former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore huge 19 and 18 percentage point leads, respectively, as he battles appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the special Alabama Senate Republican run-off election scheduled for September 26th.  This week, two other firms report very different polling results. 
 
As we stated earlier, Voter Surveys & Consulting found a much tighter 45-41% support split, but again with Moore leading.  Yesterday, Harper Polling (8/24-26; 800 AL likely GOP run-off voters) sees the race getting even closer.  According to this latest study, the Moore lead is reduced to 47-45%.  Considering we have such a wide variance between the two sets of polls, methodology is likely more responsible for the difference than a massive sway in respondent opinion.  For now, it is safer to assume, however, that the closer data is more accurate, and that the race is evolving into a toss-up.

--Jim Ellis

While polling in the Alabama is getting tighter, a new JMC Analytics & Polling survey (8/26-27; 500 completed responses via automated device from likely Republican household respondents) find former state Sen. Kelli Ward’s early Republican primary advantage growing over first-term Sen. Jeff Flake. 
 
Last week, we saw polling from HighGround Public Affairs Consulting that gave Ms. Ward a huge 42-28% lead over the incumbent GOP Senator.  Public Policy Polling followed with approval rating data that found 61% of surveyed Arizona Republicans disapproved of Sen. Flake’s job performance.  We questioned the former’s reliability factor, seeing the possibility of a potential skew.  Now, JMC Analytics & Polling released new data that arrives at the same conclusions.  If fact, their results are even more damaging for Sen. Flake.  According to these results, Ward’s lead is 47-21%, and Sen. Flake’s approval rating among members of his own party an even more dismal 22:67%.  This race is a long way from being over, however.  The 2018 Arizona Republican primary is still a full year away.

--Jim Ellis

It’s been several months since we’ve seen any polling for the proposed 2018 US Senate race between three-term incumbent Bill Nelson (D) and term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R).  Florida Atlantic University publicized their new statewide poll (released 8/29; 800 FL registered voters via online and automated response device) and finds the two major political figures in a virtual dead heat.  The actual results project Sen. Nelson ahead by only two points, 42-40%, but with both potential candidates well below 50%.  Sen. Nelson has said repeatedly that he will seek re-election.  Gov. Scott says he won’t fully decide until much later in the cycle but it appears to be a foregone conclusion that he will run.

--Jim Ellis

As expected, four-term US Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton) yesterday formally announced that he will run for the Senate next year.  The Congressman joins a crowded four-candidate field, but he now will be considered the favorite to win the nomination.  President Trump had publicly called upon him to run.  Should he be successful in winning next April’s GOP primary, the Congressman will then face two-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D).  The Senator begins the race as a clear favorite for re-election, but Rep. Barletta’s presence in the field gives the Republicans a viable and tested challenger candidate.  Back in 2010, Mr. Barletta, running for the third time, unseated 26-year incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D).

--Jim Ellis

Two Nevada Republican primary polls were released yesterday that show completely different results.  And, both have methodology questions.  JMC Analytics & Polling (8/24-25; 700 likely Republican registered voters) finds Republican challenger Danny Tarkanian leading Sen. Dean Heller, 39-31%.  The Heller campaign quickly countered with their own Tarrance Group poll taken earlier in the month (8/14-16; 300 NV GOP likely primary voters) that gives the Senator a wide 55-33% lead over Mr. Tarkanian.  Obviously, the polls differ wildly, but even the small-sample Tarrance data suggests weakness for Heller within the Republican base despite his 22-point advantage. 
 
The JMC poll likely created a sample more closely aligned with President Trump supporters (Mr. Trump has an 80:14% favorability ratio within the sample) as opposed to a straight Republican registered voter universe.  The sampling statement suggests that the respondents are “likely registered Republican voters”, an unusual approach in a place where voters are defined as members of a particular political party.   We can expect to see a great deal of political activity surrounding the Nevada Senate race throughout all of next year both in the Republican primary and certainly the general election.

--Jim Ellis