Former US Rep. Chris Carney (D), who represented northeastern Pennsylvania for two terms before losing a 2010 campaign to current incumbent Tom Marino (R-Williamsport), is contemplating another run for the House next year.  Mr. Carney had been close to re-entering elective politics before, but each time backed away.  The 10th District is solidly Republican, so his chances of unseating Mr. Marino, even if 2018 yields a strong Democratic year, are not particularly good.  Recently, the Congressman, under consideration for appointment as the nation’s Drug Czar, withdrew from consideration because of a serious illness in his family.  Rep. Marino is expected to seek re-election.

--Jim Ellis

Last week Sen. Rob Portman (R) endorsed state Treasurer Josh Mandel’s (R) bid against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and then urged all Ohio Republicans to unite behind him.  This week some staunch Gov. John Kasich supporters, who oppose the pro-Trump state Treasurer, are reportedly attempting to recruit best-selling author J.D. Vance into the Republican Senate primary.  Even if Vance were to get in, Mandel would maintain his front-runner status for the nomination.  The general election battle is likely to be a re-match of the Brown-Mandel 2012 contest, a battle the Senator won, 51-45%.

--Jim Ellis

The Utah Republican Party chairman announced that the GOP will hold a special nominating convention on June 17th in order to winnow down the field of 15 GOP candidates who filed before last Friday’s deadline.  Under the Utah election system, any candidate receiving 60% of the convention delegates’ votes would immediately advance to the primary, or clinch the nomination, if no one qualifies by signature petition.   Several candidates including Provo Mayor John Curtis and Tanner Ainge, the son of Boston Celtics General Manager and ex-Brigham Young University basketball star Danny Ainge, have already indicated that they will bypass the convention and petition their way onto the ballot.  This means they must obtain 7,000 valid signatures of UT-3 voters before June 12th.  Democrats have yet to announce if they will hold a nominating convention.  
 
The partisan primaries are scheduled for August 15th with the special general calendared for November 7th.  Republicans are heavy favorites to hold the seat.  Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) is resigning at the end of June to accept an unannounced position in the private sector.

--Jim Ellis

The special Senate election’s early flow favors appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R).  First, on candidate filing day, two strong potential opponents decided not to run.  Then, in a blow to conservative activist candidates hoping to attack Strange from the right, the National Rifle Association yesterday announced their endorsement of the new Senator.  His top two challengers for the August 15th Republican primary election are US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore.

--Jim Ellis

The Memorial Day weekend break was a quiet one, politically, with no campaign announcements or developments bubbling to the surface.
 
The respite does give us time to better analyze at least one aspect of Republican Greg Gianforte’s 50-44% victory over Democrat Rob Quist in last Thursday’s special congressional election, however. 
 
The most stunning statistic coming from the special election is the voter participation factor.  The final count gives Gianforte a 22,990 vote win, but this comes from a voter universe of 377,465 voters, an all-time record high for a special congressional election.  To put this latter number in perspective, it is 9,502 more than the number of people who participated in the last Montana mid-term election, an extraordinary total.  The 2016 presidential year congressional turnout exceeded 507,000 voters.
 
To put this in current context, the California special jungle primary election held April 4th in Los Angeles drew only 42,308 voters.  The recently completed South Carolina special primary contest featured 57,979 ballots.  In the Kansas special in the Wichita anchored district, the turnout total was 122,594, and in the most talked about GA-6 election in the northern Atlanta suburbs, the voter participation factor exceeded most expectations by reaching an impressive 192,569. 
 
Keep in mind, however, that the Montana at-large seat is the largest congressional district in the country, encompassing a total population of more than 1.042 million people.  This yields a voter registration pool of almost 700,000, thus partially accounting for the exceedingly large special election turnout.  But, for a special election to exceed the previous mid-term vote total is highly unusual to say the least.  This underscores an energized electorate, not just from the Democratic perspective that generates most of the media attention, but from base Republican and business sector voters, as well.

--Jim Ellis
 
 

Republican Greg Gianforte scored a 50-44% victory over Democrat Rob Quist in the special congressional election last night, easily overcoming the controversy involving his physical altercation with a news reporter. 
 
Despite Democratic spin that the 24,000+ vote victory is somehow a victory for them because the Gianforte percentage was low, the GOP win is well within range of other Montana open congressional races.  When now-Senator Steve Daines (R) first won the at-large district in 2012, his percentage was 53%.  Two years later, in the GOP wave election, current US Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke (R) notched 55% in his first time on the ballot.  Despite Gianforte being projected as the winner, one county, Glacier, remains uncounted.  When the final vote totals are recorded, Gianforte’s win percentage will likely increase to a small degree.
 
Turnout for this race was record setting, with what will be more than 375,000 people voting.  In the 2014 mid-term election, for example, voter turnout came in just short of 368,000.

--Jim Ellis

When we last looked at Sen. Orrin Hatch’s (R) political situation, the full speculation centered on him running for an eighth term.  Now, reports surfacing from Utah political circles are suggesting that the retirement scenario could well be in the picture.  The Senator, himself, in an interview again yesterday said he is planning to run, but unforeseen circumstances like family illness could certainly change his mind.  The companion part of the story again includes former presidential nominee Mitt Romney and whether he might run for the seat should the Senator retire after 42 years in office.  According to Mr. Hatch, Mr. Romney isn’t planning to run, though the Senator wishes he would enter an open situation.  It is clear that nothing is clear here, and we’ll simply have to wait until everyone ultimately decides upon what they will do. 

--Jim Ellis

We can expect the Kansas Democrats to try and stop what may be coming down the political railroad track.  Yesterday, 2014 Independent US Senate candidate Greg Orman, indicated that he may enter the open Governor’s race next year.  Mr. Orman became the de facto Democratic Senate candidate against incumbent Pat Roberts (R) when the party failed to field a credible contender.  In the end, Orman lost by ten percentage points but had been polling much closer.  Therefore, the Democrats adopted him because he was attacking Sen. Roberts from the left. 
 
This time, such will not be the case.  Several credible Democrats, including former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and ex-Kansas Agriculture Secretary Joe Svaty are already in the primary race, with others potentially joining.  An Orman independent candidacy would badly hurt the eventual Democratic nominee in the general election because he will take left-of-center votes away from the party nominee and make it easier for Republicans to retain the top statewide office.  Gov. Sam Brownback (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

--Jim Ellis

Former Miami-Dade County School Board member Raquel Regalado, daughter of Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado, announced yesterday that she will seek the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami).  The seat is the strongest Democratic district, in terms of presidential vote for Hillary Clinton, which a Republican represents throughout the entire United States.  Therefore, we can expect this to be a major 2018 congressional battleground.  Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro is the other major GOP candidate already in the race.  State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez, Miami Beach City Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, and 2016 nominee and businessman Scott Fuhrman are the announced Democratic contenders.

--Jim Ellis

As expected, Provo Mayor John Curtis (R) announced his congressional candidacy, yesterday.  The Mayor’s entry brings the number of Republican candidates to eight as candidate filing for the impending special election will close tomorrow.  Gov. Gary Herbert (R) scheduled the special primary for August 15th, with the special general to follow on November 7th.  Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) is resigning from the House effective June 30th.

--Jim Ellis