The election result translated into a 8,195 vote win for Estes, from a turnout of 120,897 individuals. The participation factor was 30% of the registered voter base, strong for a special election, particularly one that didn’t attract much attention until the last week. Compare this to the April 4th special congressional contest in California. There, only 28,731 voters went to the polls.
While the narrative coming from this result is that Estes under-performed for a Republican candidate and how this, somehow, reflects negatively upon President Trump, the result was generally in line with past GOP performance. When the last two Republican House members from this district originally won the post, Reps. Todd Tiahrt in 1994 and Mike Pompeo in 2010, their win percentages were 53 and 59%, respectively. President Trump carried the district last November with a larger 60-33% spread.
The Estes victory now makes the House partisan division 238R-193D, with four vacancies remaining to be filled. The next special election comes in six days, on April 18th, in Georgia. There, Democrat Jon Ossoff is expected to finish first in a crowded field of 18 candidates, and will most likely advance to a run-off with a Republican on June 20th.